Bypoll fallout concerns, 'organic' support for V D: How Satheesan emerged as Kerala chief minister pick

New Delhi: Apprehensions in the Congress leadership about a possible negative outcome from a bypoll in Alappuzha Lok Sabha seat if K C Venugopal is chosen and the “organic” nature of demonstrations on Chief Ministerial choice in Kerala were among the reasons that tilted the balance in favour of V D Satheesan, sources said on Thursday.

The three contenders – Venugopal, Satheesan and Ramesh Chennithala – had argued why they be chosen before the ‘High Command’ – Mallikarjun Kharge and Rahul Gandhi – but wider consultations with party’s former state chiefs like A K Antony, V M Sudheeran and K Muraleedharan gave a different picture to the leadership if the decision went against Satheesan.

Choosing the younger among the contenders – Satheesan is 61, Venugopal 63 and Chennithala 69 – also came as the leadership acknowledged Satheesan’s “energetic” leadership in the state when the party was “down and out” and giving “direction” and “ideological clarity”. A senior leader said Rahul might have also weighed Satheesan’s “ideological clarity” before taking a decision.

While acknowledging that all three were “capable and deserving” as Rahul said in last Saturday’s meeting, sources said the leadership did not rush into a decision even when the perception was that it was in favour of Venugopal who had mustered the support of MLAs. Satheesan, sources said, had however disputed the claims and insisted that he had the support of 32 MLAs.

One of the major concerns was the reports from Kerala that a bypoll in Alappuzha, if Venugopal has to resign from Lok Sabha to become the Chief Minister, may not go the Congress way and the BJP could benefit from it. Also, irate Satheesan supporters were flooding social media warning that an Assembly bypoll would be a ‘Waterloo’ for Venugopal.

Sources indicated that Antony, Sudheeran and Muraleedharan had flagged concerns over the public not taking bypolls nicely and it could take the sheen away from the tremendous victory the Congress-led UDF managed after ten years in the wilderness. They have also briefed the leadership about the demonstrations held in Kerala in favour of Satheesan.

Initially, sources said, the ‘High Command’ was of the view that the demonstrations were “orchestrated” but later got reports from Kerala that what started as planned ones soon became “organic”, especially in minority belts. Rahul also had his own assessment about the situation while Priyanka Gandhi Vadra is learnt to have supported Satheesan, sources said.

Another thing that gave Satheesan the edge was the unflinching support he received from Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), even as some of his detractors tried to use it against him, claiming it could be seen as succumbing to an ally and a minority community.

Sources said IUML views Satheesan as a “secular leader” who stood with the community when “Islamophobic” comments were made by community leaders like Vellappally Natesan while other Congress leaders maintained a strategic silence in the run up to the elections. He also received support from Christian leaders too.

One of the challenges for Satheesan will be to ensure that he is not under the influence of allies, especially because he has never held an administrative post. Congress-led governments in Kerala were in the past accused by the BJP of currying favours to the allies, especially those from the minorities.

Though Satheesan may not acknowledge it now, it is widely perceived that it was Chennithala who played a role in the Chief Minister-designate not getting a ministerial assignment in 2011 when the UDF came to power. Satheesan, also a six-time MLA who wrested a CPI-dominated seat in 2001, is also not given prominent organisational positions till 2021.

Satheesan’s election is also seen as the High Command rejecting the reported majority Venugopal had in the legislature party. Sources said there was “no secret ballot” in the legislature party when Observers Ajay Maken and Mukul Wasnik met the MLAs.