Kerala Assembly Elections 2026: All eyes on impact of polarisation bids by parties

Public campaign ends

Thiruvananthapuram: As the high-voltage public campaign for the Kerala assembly elections came to an end on Tuesday, the curious question doing the rounds is how the allegations and counter allegations by the three fronts would influence voters as the state goes to the polls on April 9.

The election campaign mostly witnessed the CPM-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) and Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) accusing each other of nexus with BJP, BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) accusing LDF and UDF of nexus with outfits like SDPI and Jamaath-e-Islami, and the BJP and CPM accusing Congress of succumbing to the Indian Union Muslim League. All these were obvious efforts for communal polarization of votes.

While the BJP almost lost hopes of making inroads into the minority vote banks, the voting patterns of majority communities will be a crucial factor.

Though there was a drift in the Hindu-Ezhava votes to the BJP in the previous elections, political analysts are pointing out the UDF is now at a better position to tap those votes as the anti-incumbency against the LDF government could come in UDF's favour as it is still the major opposition party.

After the setback suffered by the LDF in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, CPM leadership had also openly flayed that Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana Yogam (SNDP) linked political party Bharath Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS), which is a key coalition partner in NDA, was becoming the "recruitment agency" of BJP as there was a drift of Ezhava votes to the BJP.

Political analysts say that the scenario was no more relevant. "Even as the BDJS could make some influence in the Ezhava vote banks in favour of the BJP in the previous elections, now it is almost vanishing as the BJP could not make much influence here. What is happening now is a drift of the Ezhava and other Hindu votes to the UDF," says political observer Joseph C Mathew.

Minority distress poses major hurdle for BJP

Chances for the BJP-NDA still remain bleak as they themselves are keeping the Muslim community, which comes to around 27 percent of state's population, at a distance by not including any one from the community among its candidates.

The attempts to make inroads into the Christian vote banks also suffered a blow with the moves to amend the Foreign Contribution Regulation Act witnessing church heads coming out in the open against the saffron party in the peak of the campaign.

UDF is having a better chance of gaining from the minority vote banks owing to the anti-incumbency against the LDF as well as their ability to counter the BJP at the national level.

Even as BJP camps are pinning hopes of a counter consolidation of Hindu votes, the chances of scripting success is confined only to a few seats like Nemom and Kazhakoottam in Thiruvananthapuram and Chathanoor in Kollam.

Senior journalist Ramesh Babu also said that the young first time voters who play decisive roles in elections would be casting their votes based on the quality of candidates and other factors. They would not be influenced by vote polarization attempts.

LDF's efforts to diminish anti-incumbency

Even as anti-incumbency against the 10-year long LDF rule was highly reflected in the recent local body polls in which the UDF gained, the Pinarayi Vijayan government seems to have succeeded in diminishing the anti-incumbency to certain extent with its massive public relations initiative.

It seems to have left a feeling among the people that the state witnessed unprecedented development under the Pinarayi government even as the fact is that the previous UDF government had played a key role in making long pending development projects like the Vizhinjam international seaport a reality.