Kerala Assembly Elections 2026 | How Kerala voted in the past

Since the formal consolidation of the LDF and UDF in the late 1970s, Kerala's electoral politics has largely revolved around a stable bipolar contest, with power alternating between the two alliances for nearly four decades in the 140-seat Assembly.

Assembly elections in Kerala are due on April 9 and, unlike several other Indian States, the electorate here has historically displayed a strong tendency to alternate power between the two major political fronts, making anti-incumbency a defining feature of the State's electoral politics.

Kerala, the last remaining Left bastion in India, was also among the first States in the world to democratically elect a Communist government to power in 1957. Led by E M S Namboodiripad, the Communist Party of India (CPI) came to power in Kerala in the first Assembly elections, making it the only non-Congress State at the time.

The State, however, soon came under the President's Rule after the Liberation Struggle or Vimochana Samaram of 1958–59, a period of anti-Communist protests in the State.

After a period of President's Rule and a coalition government comprising the Praja Socialist Party, the Congress, and the Muslim League, EMS returned to power in 1967, this time heading a Communist Party of India (Marxist) government following the party’s split from the CPI in November 1964.

As internal dissensions led to the fall of the EMS government, the CPI exited the coalition and formed a separate front that assumed power with external support from the Indian National Congress, with C Achutha Menon sworn in as Chief Minister in 1969.

This political realignment that lasted for a decade till 1979 is widely seen as the precursor to Kerala's present day LDF–UDF bipolar political structure.

The rise of two-front politics

Since the formal consolidation of the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the United Democratic Front (UDF) in the late 1970s, Kerala's electoral politics has largely revolved around a stable bipolar contest, with power alternating between the two alliances for nearly four decades in the 140- seat Assembly.

The LDF consists of the CPI(M), CPI and various other smaller parties, while the UDF, an alliance of centre to centre-Left parties consists of the Congress, IUML and other smaller parties.

From 1982 onwards, voters consistently replaced incumbent governments, establishing one of India's most predictable patterns of anti-incumbency. The UDF won the 1982 elections with 77 seats, only to be voted out five years later as the LDF secured a comfortable majority in 1987. This cycle continued through successive elections as the UDF returned to power in 1991, the LDF in 1996, the UDF again in 2001, and the LDF in 2006.

Even when the margins thinned, like in the 2011 Assembly elections when the LDF and UDF won 68 and 72 seats, respectively, (71 is the majority mark), the 'swing' system still held. The difference between the vote shares of the two fronts also remained tight till 2011 with both the fronts securing above 40 per cent of votes.

First win for BJP and a pause in pattern

2016 Kerala Assembly Election was marked by a significant event in the State's politics, the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP), which had remained an outsider all this while, managed to win its first seat. BJP leader O Rajagopal won the Nemom Assembly constituency in Thiruvananthapuram district.

Pinarayi Vijayan became Chief Minister of Kerala after the 2016 elections and has held power for a decade since then.

The 2021 elections, however, put a pause to the trend of the State choosing alternative fronts every polls, as Vijayan-led LDF managed to beat anti-incumbency and returned to power with a huge majority of 99 seats.

Vote share analysis of the 2016 and 2021 elections also shows that the UDF saw a significant fall in vote percentage as well as seats. In 2016, the LDF and the UDF won 91 (43.48 per cent vote share) and 47 (38.81 per cent vote share) seats, respectively.

The LDF took the vote share up to 45.43 per cent in 2021 while the UDF saw a marginal increase in the vote share (39.41 per cent) and won 41 seats.

On the other hand, the BJP, lost the lone seat it had won in 2016 to the CPI(M), while improving its vote share only slightly from 10.53 per cent in 2016 to 11.3 per cent in 2021.

As the State heads into another electoral contest with results set to be announced on May 4, the central question remains whether Kerala's electorate will revert to its historical pattern of rotation or will the LDF overcome anti-incumbency once more to set a new trend of continuity for the southern State.