Kerala Assembly Elections 2026 | SIR outcome poses a fresh hurdle for BJP at Manjeshwar

Thiruvananthapuram: Manjeshwar in Kasargod, which shares borders with Karnataka and has sizable Kannadiga population, had witnessed BJP's hopes dashing by a thin margin of 89 votes in 2016 and 855 votes in 2021.

As BJP former state president K Surendran again enters the electoral fray, the increase in voters following the Special Intensive Revision has come as a fresh challenge. 

The total voters of Manjeshwar has increased by around 8,400 following the SIR. As per local political representatives, the minority votes in the region increased drastically and hence sitting MLA A K M Ashraf of the Indian Union Muslim League, who is again seeking mandate as UDF candidate, may get the benefit.

But the ongoing disruption in flight services owing to the West Asian crisis gives some hope to the BJP camps as the general tendency of pro-UDF NRI voters coming down in large numbers to cast their votes seems to be affected this time.

While the sizeable Kannadiga  population in the region used to have a lenience towards the BJP, representative of a Kannadiga forum said that since the ruling Left Democratic Front government initiated a host of measures to address the problems faced by the linguistic minorities, there was high chance of a section of Kannadiga votes going in favour of the LDF candidate K R Jayananda.

In the last five years Ashraf had strengthened his local bonding with the people by taking up issues like toll collection at Arikkady in Thalappadi-Neeleswaram stretch of NH 66, which the NHAI even stopped. This indeed gives him an edge over the two other key candidates.

The strong consolidation of minority votes against the BJP is also likely to be in Ashraf's favour. 

While Manjeshwar is in the northern part of Kasargod, another keenly watched contest in the district is Thrikaripur in the southern parts as former BJP leader Sandeep Varrier is contesting as Congress candidate in the CPM stronghold.

Since the formation of the constituency in 1977 only CPM had been winning. In 2021 CPM's M Rajagopal won with a margin of over 26,000 votes. Even as the chances for Varrier making any wonders is remote, the UDF is actively campaigning in the region with prominent Congress leaders.