Kerala Assembly Elections 2026 | UDF eyes return after a decade, LDF hopes to defy anti-incumbency under Pinarayi Vijayan

Thiruvanathapuram: With a day left for the Kerala assembly election results to come, the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is pinning high hopes of returning to power in Kerala after ten years.

Even as all exit-polls gave an upper hand for the UDF, the ruling CPM-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) is yet to give up hope, especially since some surveys have found incumbent Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan as the most favoured Chief Minister candidate.

For the CPM, this election is very crucial as Kerala is the lone state where the party is now in power. The party had survived a similar situation in 2021 as they retained power by winning 99 seats in the 140 member assembly.

Though the BJP is unlikely to make any wonders as per the exit polls, even winning one seat could be a relief for the BJP as the saffron party could at least claim that it could reopen its account in Kerala.

The BJP has been targeting at least ten seats and emerge as a decisive player in Kerala assembly. But most of the exit polls predicted only zero to four seats for the saffron party.

Issues like moves to amend the Foreign Contribution (Regulation) Act just ahead of the polls could have become costly for the BJP in gaining support of Christian vote banks.

While the LDF was trying to project its development and welfare initiatives, the UDF was trying to cash in on anti-incumbency as well as a set of welfare measures like free travel for women in state transport buses.

BJP-led NDA was trying to project itself as an alternative to the LDF and UDF that have been ruling Kerala alternately over these decades. 

Though Congress leaders were anticipating a clean sweep for the UDF with up to 100 seats in the 140 member house, the exit polls predicted only an upper hand for the UDF and not any sweep .

Hence, both the UDF and the LDF could be keeping fingers crossed as the votes will be counted on Monday.

CM race in Congress

Ever since the impressive performance in the 2025 local body polls, the UDF camps were highly confident of scripting success in the assembly polls too by taking advantage of the anti-incumbency against the ten year long Pinarayi rule.

This even triggered a race for the CM post in the Congress, which invited open warnings from party top leader Rahul Gandhi, who asked party leaders not to stage solo dance amidst group dance.

However, after the polling on April 9 the lobbying for the Chief Minister post resurfaced.

AICC general secretary's K C Venugopal, who did not contest this assembly polls, is also being projected by his supporters as a CM candidate. Opposition leader V D Satheesan, who has been leading the UDF over the last five years, and senior leader Ramesh Chennithala, who was campaign committee chairman, are the other probables. 

Rebel threat for CPM

This election was also marked with multiple rebel threats for the CPM, even in its citadel Kannur district where two local leaders, T K Govindan and V Kunhikrishnan  are in the fray as rebels, with the UDF's support. 

Former minister and senior CPM leader G Sudhakaran, who is contesting as rebel in Ambalapuzha seat in Alappuzha, is also having winning chances.

Top leaders in the fray

Prominent persons in the fray include Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, opposition leader V D Satheesan, Congress senior leader Ramesh Chennithala, Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee president Sunny Joseph, CPM leader and former health minister K K Shailaja, BJP state president Rajeev Chandrasekhar, union minister of state for minority affairs George Kurian, former union minister of state for external affairs V Muraleedharan and BJP former state president K Surendran, former DGP R Sreelekha and Indian Union Muslim League leader P K Kunhalikutty.