Kerala Assembly elections 2026 | Who next after Pinarayi Vijayan? Inside CPI(M)'s looming showdown

The Left is confident of grabbing a third term, while the Congress-led UDF is betting on its 'never before seen unity' and the anti-incumbency.

Elections are back at the doorsteps of Kerala with the State's electorate set to decide the fate of 140 Assembly seats come April 9, 2026. This time again, the poll battle is crucial for the eternal foes, the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF). While for the Congress, it is a battle to reclaim the trust of the people after being dumped in the Opposition for a decade, for the CPI(M), the elections remain a prestige effort to cling to its only bastion after devastating losses in former strongholds of West Bengal and Tripura.

For the LDF, the face of the campaign in Kerala has been the incumbent Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, who is also seeking a mandate from Dharmadam constituency in Kannur for the third time.

Across the length and breadth of Kerala, the landscape has been transformed. From the narrowest village lanes to the bustling arterial roads, buildings and public spaces are adorned with banners and towering hoardings. Most strikingly, almost every piece of campaign material features a singular, looming presence: the face of Vijayan.

But the question being asked by many and in the minds of political observers is why only Pinarayi and can the Left pull it off again by just projecting him alone as the leader.

Crack in the fortress?

Although the Left party has been presenting a unified front, reports of resentment brewing in the CPI(M) has gained momentum in the recent days, with the party seeing disenfranchisement of senior leaders G Sudhakaran and T K Govindan, who recently left the party citing "favoritism", suggest a shift away from established ideological stances. But for party men and cadres, it's Pinarayi who can lead the party through uncertain challenges. He is credited for sailing through the strong undercurrents, being able to hold the fort together and having already led the LDF to a thumping majority for two consecutive terms — a historic first in Kerala's political landscape.

"We are looking forward to a resounding victory in the upcoming Assembly elections. Our confidence lies in the track record of the State government over the last 10 years, redefining governance with overarching welfare measures and committed interventions in improving infrastructure and strengthening the public sector," Vijayan had told DH in an interview given earlier.

Vijayan: A man of resolve

Known as a man of "deliverables", even Vijayan’s critics and the bureaucracy credit him for his unwavering resolve.

He is called "Mundu Modi" (a dhoti-clad Narendra Modi) by his opponents for his "controlled" and "authoritative" nature. K A Shaji, a journalist and political commentator from Kerala said that "cult worship" was never part of the Left's DNA in Kerala.

"The narrative being built around his leadership is dangerous," Shaji told DH. "There was a time when people said "India is Indira and Indira is India". The Left in Kerala is now treading a similar path. Rallying behind one leader, even when the Left had tall leaders like E M S Namboodiripad and E K Nayanar, was never the party line. Now we see a manufactured image suggesting that after him comes the deluge."

For CPI(M) leadership, Pinarayi is 'Captain' who made possible even the unimagined developments like Vizhinjam International Seaport in Thiruvananthapuram and national highways.

A man of few words, Vijayan has risen through the ranks of the CPI(M), starting his political career through student union activities at Govt Brennen College, Thalassery, later joining the Communist Party of India (Marxist) in 1964.

Vijayan in a recent interview to actor Mohanlal, titled Kandum Mindiyum Iruvar, sharing a glimpse into his personal life said he credits his mother for the upbringing and keeping him grounded.

"My mother used to sing legendary songs for me. As I learnt to read I used to read the Ramayana, Krishna songs and the Mahabharata for my mother. Such readings seem to have influenced my character and left some elements of ascetic life in me. That could be why I am always happy with what I have and don't have craving for anything," said Vijayan.

He served as president and secretary of the Kerala Students Federation (KSF) and later worked with the Kerala Socialist Youth Federation (KSYF) before rising to leadership.

He subsequently held key roles, including Minister for Power and Co-operation (1996–1998) and served as the Kerala State Secretary of the CPI(M) from 1998 to 2015. Before being elected as Chief Minister in 2016, Vijayan held the post of secretary of the Kerala State Committee of the CPI(M), for a record 17 years until 2015 from 1998, after the death of Chadayan Govindan. Vijayan was first elected as Chief Minister of Kerala in 2016 and was presented with a rare resounding victory for a second consecutive term in 2021.

Banking on welfare schemes, development projects

And fast forward to 2026, the LDF — with Vijayan as its face — seeking a rare third term in Kerala is banking on welfare schemes and the development projects that the last two LDF governments have fulfilled. The Left is confident in grabbing a third term, while the Congress-led UDF is betting on its "never before seen unity" and the anti-incumbency, which it says is strong this time and is seen across the constituencies.

When posed the question to Shaji, if he can imagine Vijayan as the Opposition leader, quipped saying, "Knowing him, Pinarayi might rather sit as patriarch of the party than being seen as LoP."

Prem Kumar, a political commentator, counters the argument stating that the question of the Left losing does not even arise. "If that was the case, Pinarayi Vijayan wouldn't have been leading it from the front."

He added that UDF is in a "dangerously hopeless" position in this election and in spite of the unified voice they put through, people can see through what it is and there are several indicators of it recently, including the allegations of "misuse" of Wayanad rehabilitation fund.