Maharashtra Assembly Elections 2024 | Allies of BJP watch 'batenge' poll pitch warily

Mumbai: The first electoral trial of the BJP’s ‘batenge to katenge’ pitch as a counter to the Congress’ ‘Save Constitution’ narrative is being eyed warily by its allies in Maharashtra — the Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP — who have framed their campaigns with a thrust on flagship social schemes of the Mahayuti government.

While the NCP has categorically distanced itself from UP CM Yogi Adityanath’s ‘batenge’ remark, Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s Sena is evaluating whether the BJP’s shrill Hindutva line could dilute the thrust of Mahayuti electioneering, which has been woven around the development plank and the ‘ladki behna’ scheme for women.

Pawar’s assertion of his party’s position can be attributed to the fact that the NCP has fielded the maximum number of Muslim candidates within the Mahayuti.

“Out of the 57-odd seats we are in fray, almost 10% are Muslims,” said a leader closely associated with Ajit Pawar’s campaign. However, the BJP, the largest partner in the NDA that is contesting 148-odd seats out of the 288 in the state, has also got to address its core constituency.

Having suffered a huge setback in the Lok Sabha polls, the party is again locked in a direct contest against the Congress in Vidarbha and parts of Marathwada, the two regions where minority consolidation and caste mobilisation were noticeable in the LS elections.

Data shows the LS polls were very close. The difference between Maha Vikas Agadhi and Mahayuti’s vote share was less than 0.3 percentage points. However, this slender margin translated to 30 seats for the INDIA bloc compared to 17 for the NDA.

If the LS leads are converted to Assembly segments, the NDA leads in 131 seats. Of these, 79 have been allocated to the BJP.

“There were about half a dozen seats in the LS polls where we lost due to a huge deficit incurred in just one Assembly, despite having led in other Assembly seats in the constituency,” said a BJP leader who has closely worked on the party strategy.

The BJP feels the impact of the ‘Save Constitution’ campaign has greatly reduced in the last four months but remains vigilant against Congress’ renewed attempts to revive the narrative in the last lap.

Adityanath’s statement followed by PM Narendra Modi’s articulation of the same line as ‘ek hain to safe hain’ is being seen as a bulwark against caste polarisation. 

Earlier this week, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, while flagging off the party campaign in Nagpur, accused the RSS of “opposing the principle of Constitution.” Demanding caste census, Rahul sought a 50% cap on reservations be revisited.

As a counter to the Congress’ caste line, a strong Hindutva campaign by the BJP, on the face of it, should also suit the Shinde Sena.

But in a many-layered election, where ideologies have been turned on its head, no one is really sure how this may play out. 

Pitted against Udhav Thackeray’s Sena (UBT) in most of the constituencies, Shinde’s Sena draws support from the traditional BJP-Sena constituency. While this pro-NDA vote is getting divided, UBT Sena seems to have benefitted from a substantial transfer of anti-NDA votes to its kitty, especially the consolidation of Dalits and Muslims. 

For instance, in the Lok Sabha elections, Sena UBT’s candidate Arvind Sawant won the South Mumbai seat by close to 50,000 votes by taking a lead of 90,000 in the two Muslim-dominated Assembly segments of Mumbadevi and Byculla. Whereas the party’s lead in Worli, represented by Aditya Thackeray, came down substantially compared with the last elections. 

“Muslims have voted for UBT Sena in large numbers, and the trend will continue in this election as well,” said three-time Congress MLA from Mumbadevi, Amin Patel.

This is precisely the reason why Eknath Shinde, though laying claim to Bal Thackeray’s legacy, has sought to underscore the development programmes of his government, especially the ‘ladki behna’ scheme that covers more than 2 crore beneficiaries. 

NCP president Ajit Pawar 

Highlights - Poll moves
Ajit Pawar's NCP distanced itself from UP CM's 'katoge to batoge' statement, for the party has fielded maximum number of Muslim candidates 
Shinde’s Sena is evaluating whether BJP’s Hindutva line could dilute the thrust of Mahayuti electioneering, which is around development plank and the ‘ladki behna’ scheme 
BJP feels the impact of the ‘save Constitution’ campaign has greatly reduced in the last four months but remains vigilant
in Vidarbha and parts of Marathwada, minority consolidation and caste mobilisation were noticeable in the LS elections
Sena UBT’s candidate Arvind Sawant won South Mumbai seat by close to 50,000 votes by taking a lead in two Muslim-dominated Assembly segments of Mumbadevi and Byculla

Quote - There were about half a dozen seats in the LS polls where we lost due to a huge deficit incurred in just one Assembly despite having led in other Assembly seats in the constituency - Maharashtra BJP leader