Assembly Elections 2026 | Is Tamil Nadu heading for a change? My Axis India projects 100 plus seats for Vijay as other exit polls favour DMK

Is Tamil Nadu on the verge of a major political shift? With Assembly election results set to be announced on Monday, an exit poll by My Axis India has predicted a dramatic breakthrough for actor-turned-politician Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), forecasting the party to win between 98 and 120 seats in the 234-member Assembly.

The projection positions Vijay as a potential successor to iconic leaders such as MGR and Jayalalithaa, suggesting his long-held ambition of becoming Tamil Nadu’s Chief Minister may soon be realised.

According to the survey, TVK is expected to garner nearly 35 per cent of the vote share, driven largely by strong backing from young voters. The ruling DMK is also projected to secure 35 per cent, while the AIADMK is estimated at 23 per cent. Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK) is pegged at 3 per cent, with other parties collectively accounting for 4 per cent.

However, the My Axis India forecast sharply contrasts with most other exit polls, which broadly indicate that the DMK-Congress alliance is on course for a second consecutive term in office.

While much attention has centred on the so-called 'Vijay effect,' several observers had earlier suggested the TVK chief could emerge as a kingmaker rather than a direct contender for power.

Explaining TVK’s projected surge, My Axis India said a key factor was the electorate’s preference for Vijay as Chief Minister.

The survey, conducted among nearly 45,000 respondents, indicated overwhelming support for TVK among younger voters. As many as 68 per cent of first-time voters reportedly backed the party. Among voters aged 20–29, support stood at 59 per cent, while 45 per cent of those in the 30–39 age bracket also favoured TVK.

Of the 35 per cent respondents who expressed a desire for political change in the state, 77 per cent supported TVK, the report added.

My Axis India Chairman Pradeep Gupta told India Today that TVK performed particularly strongly in the Chennai region, adding that even senior DMK leaders, including Stalin, could face a tough contest in this election.