Tamil Nadu Assembly election results 2026 | With Vijay short of majority, here are possible scenarios for TVK to form govt

Though TVK has emerged as the single-largest party, it is short of 10 seats to ensure a simple majority of 118 seats in the House

The 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election has concluded with a major shift in the State's political landscape.

Actor-politician Vijay’s Tamizhaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) has emerged as the single-largest party, effectively shattering the decades-old bipolar dominance of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and the All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK).

The electoral verdict has, however, resulted in a hung Assembly. In the 234-member House, a party or coalition requires a simple majority of 118 seats to form the government. All eyes are on the TVK, which has won 108 seats, falling just short of the required threshold.

​With the mandate unclear, here are the potential scenarios for how the TVK could secure the reins of power in Tamil Nadu.

​1) Building a coalition with smaller parties

​The TVK could reach the majority mark by engaging in post-poll negotiations with smaller parties that hold the balance of power. While TVK contested the election solo, it may now need to seek legislative support from parties that currently sit outside the major blocs or those willing to break away from their previous alliances.

Considering that the TVK requires 10 seats to reach the 118 mark, smaller parties like the Congress, IUML, Left parties (CPI, CPI-M), or Dalit-centric entities (like the VCK) could prove vital.

While the Congress has won five seats, VCK, CPI(M), CPI and IUML have each won two seats.

There are talks of the TVK seeking the Congress support, but no formal talks have taken so far.

If Vijay successfully brings these smaller partners into a governing coalition, he could secure the necessary numbers to form a stable administration.

2) Seeking outside support

​If stitching a formal coalition proves too complex due to conflicting ideological or political interests, the TVK could seek outside support from smaller parties. Under this scenario, smaller parties might agree to vote in favour of a TVK government on critical issues — specifically during floor tests, budget, or no-confidence motions — without becoming part of the formal Cabinet. This would allow Vijay to form the government while maintaining a degree of independence on policy matters.

3) Banking on possible defections from Opposition blocs

​The election results have left both the DMK and AIADMK alliances in a weakened position. A key scenario for the TVK may involve breaking these established coalitions. If the political tide continues to favour Vijay’s momentum, individual legislators or even factions of parties dissatisfied with their current leadership may defect to support a TVK-led government, viewing it as the emerging future of the State.

​4) A minority government

If talks for ensuing a formal majority fail, the TVK could technically form a minority government as the single-largest party.

This, however, would force the TVK to rely on the support of various Opposition parties to keep the government afloat and navigate every piece of legislation through the House on a case-by-case basis. Historically, this has often been a precursor to instability and even mind-term polls.