Tamil Nadu Assembly Elections 2026 | April 23 showdown: Stalin, EPS, Vijay -- who claims the throne?

Vijay is undoubtedly the X factor with potential to decide this election's course, as several theories exist on whom his fledgling party could hurt more -- DMK or AIADMK?

Chennai: Ruling DMK sweating it out to script history by returning to power for a second consecutive term, AIADMK, the principal opposition, working hard to regain its lost glory by bringing the party back to power, and the new political venture in the town, Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK), hoping for a miracle, banking on support from youngsters.  

The 2026 Assembly election contest in Tamil Nadu is nothing short of a political potboiler as about 5.67 crore eligible voters will decide in favour of either the two dominant forces -- DMK and AIADMK – or pave the way for the emergence of a third force in TVK, which has already disrupted the political landscape.  

The polling on April 23 is unique in more ways than one. This is the first time in many decades that Tamil Nadu will witness an intense four-cornered contest -- Naam Tamizhar Katchi (NTK) of Tamil national Seeman is also in the fray – and the first time that an alliance, led by the DMK, remains intact to face its fourth straight election.  

Vijay is undoubtedly the X factor with the potential to decide this election's course, as several theories exist on whom his fledgling party could hurt more: the DMK or AIADMK. Since the actor has projected himself as the prime challenger to the DMK, there is an expectation that he might harvest a chunk of the anti-incumbency votes against Chief Minister M K Stalin’s government.  

He is being taken seriously since many pre-poll and internal surveys commissioned by parties have placed TVK’s vote share between 15-20 per cent, with a significant percentage of young voters expected to turn to his side. The elections would turn into a bi-polar contest between the alliances led by the DMK and AIADMK if TVK joins the latter, but the probability of such a scenario looks difficult.  

For Stalin, the Assembly election is more than an acid test. He believes the “good work” done by his government in the last five years has placed the DMK in a position to win a consecutive term in power for the first time since 1971.  

If Stalin leads his party to a victory, he will join the league of K Kamaraj, M G Ramachandran, and J Jayalalithaa and become the first DMK chief minister to return to power after completing a full five-year term.  

Though the DMK alliance has won every election it contested since 2019, Stalin is treading a cautious path by expanded the already strong bloc, inducting new parties and announcing advance cash transfers to women and others to ward off the anti-incumbency against his government. 

Despite the government’s claim of “splendid growth”, the DMK is under criticism for not fulfilling promises made during the 2021 polls with several sections, including government servants, hitting the streets in the last few months. 

Vijay’s entry is likely to hit the DMK like every party as the TVK is expected to take away a chunk of votes from minorities, and Dalits, who have voted in massive numbers for the alliance since 2019.  

For AIADMK and its general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami, this is a make or break election. The 53-year-old party is working against all odds to end the defeat sequence – AIADMK has not won any election after the death of its charismatic leader J Jayalalithaa in 2016 -- and reinforce the party’s  dominance in the state’s political landscape. 

Palaniswami with help from the BJP, stitched a rainbow coalition by even bringing his long-time foe T T V Dhinakaran into the NDA, but it remains to be seen whether the alliance will be able to end the winning streak of the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance, especially with Vijay trying to cut into anti-DMK votes. 

Apart from anti-incumbency votes, the AIADMK hopes to bring back women into its fold by announcing Rs 2,000 monthly assistance and Rs 10,000 as one-time assistance for all families.

As far as Vijay is concerned, there is no net loss for him. He will gain everything from this election – if the surveys prove true, it will make him a credible force and place him in the prime position during the 2029 polls -- though his dream of recreating the MGR magic of achieving power in the debut general election looks difficult, at least for now.  

It is not only Vijay’s cult status among his fans, but also the fatigue over the Dravidian majors who have ruled Tamil Nadu alternatively since 1967 that has given traction to Vijay’s politics, which is not distinctly different from those of the DMK and AIADMK.  

Vijay believes the 18-30 age group, which forms about 1.12 crore voters of the total 5.67 crore voters and a significant percentage of minorities – he is a Christian himself – will vote for him. 

Despite the DMK focusing more on women by implementing cash transfers, Vijay hopes to make a dent into the women vote bank through his charisma and key promises like Rs 2,500 per month for women under the age of 60 and eight grams of gold for women during their marriage. 

His entry into the political scene has already created ripples in the long-standing alliance between the DMK and Congress with the latter bargaining hard for seats by threatening to switch sides to TVK. The biggest challenge to Vijay could come on the ground as TVK does not have the infrastructure to take on the well-oiled election machineries of both Dravidian parties. 

For Seeman’s NTK too, the April 23 election is a crucial test. Over the past decade, NTK has been the top choice for first-time voters and those rejecting the Dravidian majors.

With Vijay’s TVK entry, the NTK -- which has steadily grown its vote share since contesting in 2016 -- might lose ground, particularly among young voters.