Tamil Nadu Assembly Elections 2026 | From the ground: Will discontent among farmers hurt DMK in rice bowl?

Thanjavur: Gnanasundram, a farmer in Papanasam in the fertile Cauvery Delta region, voted for the DMK in 2021 polls, in a departure from his loyalty towards AIADMK, in the hope that problems faced by peasants will be resolved as promised by Chief Minister M K Stalin. 

 “The government has not taken care of us enough. The compensation that the government paid for crops damaged due to floods is not adequate, and there is a perennial demand for urea,” Gnanasundram told DH, adding that he will not vote for the DMK this April 23 election.

The 59-year-old farmer is not alone. In Aaikudi village in Tiruvarur, the birth place of late DMK patriarch M Karunanidhi, Rajendran told DH that the ruling party went back on its promise of waiving off gold loans availed by farmers. 

 “Before elections, they promised all gold loans will be waived off. But once they came to power, they imposed a lot of conditions. As a result, we lost money and we feel cheated,” Rajendran told DH.

Farmers’ discontent over the DMK

The discontent among farmers over the DMK government could be seen across the Delta region – the rice bowl of Tamil Nadu. In the 2021 polls, the DMK won 40 out 46 seats at stake in the region, decimating the AIADMK-BJP combine, riding high on the negative sentiments against the saffron party. 

But it may be difficult for the DMK to achieve a sweep in Central this election with the AIADMK-BJP giving a close fight in almost every seat with people saying it could go either ways. 

Besides anti-incumbency and the disenchantment among farmers, the AIADMK-BJP is also hoping that the induction of T T V Dhinakaran’s AMMK into the NDA will boost their performance. AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami and TTV have campaigned together in the region. 

Actor Vijay’s TVK is visible only in pockets but youngsters and a section of women are likely to gravitate towards the fledgling party. One could hear older men and women say that their children will only vote for Vijay, while S Seeman’s NTK is also harvesting a sizeable amount of votes in specific constituencies, making the contest unpredictable. 

‘Intense fight due to new players’

There is a fifth player in the region in V K Sasikala, whose candidates are eyeing the Mukulathor votes that could affect the AIADMK-BJP alliance. 

“The fight is intense and tough. It could go down to the wire in many constituencies as both the DMK and AIADMK are sweating out. With votes getting split in multiple directions, the winning margin could be very less this time,” Arivu, a farmer in Mannargudi, told DH.

Fair price for their produce, uninterrupted supply of urea and fertilizers for the crops, and a “decent” compensation for crops inundated during floods are the key demands of farmers. 

The farming community is actually divided. They appreciate the “fair” procurement of paddy though flagging some minor issues and increase the price for various crops, while others point to “unfulfilled promises.” 

While the unhappiness among farmers is palpable, the support for the DMK continue to remain among unaffiliated peasants. “We have an affinity towards the DMK since Kalaignar (Karunanidhi) hailed from here. And I did benefit from the schemes. My gold loan was waived,” Manimaran said. 

‘DMK failed to fulfill promises’

A couple of farmers’ associations, which supported the DMK in 2021, are now campaigning against the ruling party, asking people to not vote for them. 

P R Pandian, President of All Farmers’ Association, accuses the DMK of not fulfilling promises made during the 2021 elections and ignoring the interests of farmers by focussing only on industrial growth. 

“They have not fulfilled any of the promises. They said they will fix Rs 2,500 as the price for procuring one quintal of paddy immediately after coming to power. They went back on the promise and only at the tail end of their tenure, they have implemented it. I can keep listing the promises,” he told DH.

Many farmers openly praise Palaniswami saying they benefitted from his tenure, but flag his alliance with the BJP as a problem. Farmers in the Delta have been against the BJP since 2017 when their three-month protest in New Delhi was overlooked by the Union Government and have been voting against the alliance since then. 

“I would like to vote for the AIADMK. But I will not because of the BJP. If there was no BJP, I would have blindly vote for AIADMK’s Two Leaves symbol,” Mujibur Rahman, a farmer, told DH. 

‘Anti-BJP sentiments among farmers’

If the anti-BJP sentiments have a role to play in how people vote, it could hurt the AIADMK-BJP, which is also likely to be hit by the Sasikala factor – her candidates getting even 2,000 or 3,000 votes might spoil the chances. Making things complicated, the BJP has fielded candidates in five seats, including three in Pudukkottai, where it hardly has any presence. 

For the AIADMK, making inroads into the Delta is crucial as the party could only get six seats in the whole region in the 2021 elections and could not make any headway in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls as well.

Cauvery Delta or Central Tamil Nadu is critical for the DMK as the region has seven ministers with Tiruchirapalli attaining star status as Vijay is contesting from Tiruchi (East) constituency besides Perambur. The contest in Tiruchirapalli is also turning interesting with ministers K N Nehru and Anbil Mahesh Poyyamozhi defending their seats and working to ensure that the DMK’s Inigo S Irudayaraj defeats Vijay in Tiruchi (east). 

The induction of AMMK into the NDA has made the battle intense and interesting with many DMK ministers, including T R B Raaja, being confined to their own constituencies.

In districts like Cuddalore, and Ariyalur, the DMK and AIADMK are engaged in an intense neck and neck fight, thanks to the ruling party's alliance with the PMK, though the party has suffered a split. 

CENTRAL TAMIL NADU:

DISTRICTS:

CUDDALORE

PERAMBALUR

ARIYALUR

TIRUCHIRAPPALLI

THANJAVUR

TIRUVARUR

NAGAPATTINAM

MAYILADUTHURAI

PUDUKKOTTAI

NO. OF CONSTITUENCIES: 46

2021 RESULT

DMK: 40

AIADMK: 6