Tamil Nadu Assembly Elections 2026 | TVK's entry upends Dravidian majors in South TN?

Vijay's arrival has upended the political landscape, making electoral outcomes unpredictable, as Vijay’s appeal cuts across the region, drawing sizeable support from Christians in communities like fisherfolk and Nadars.

Madurai: Southern Tamil Nadu has been an AIADMK stronghold since its founding by the legendary M G Ramachandran in 1972, benefiting from the consolidation of votes from several communities, especially the Mukulathors or Thevars.

In the 2021 assembly elections, the DMK made inroads into the region by winning 40 of the 58 seats spanning 10 districts, fuelled by anti-incumbency against the AIADMK government and T T V Dhinakaran’s AMMK splitting Thevar votes.

Near en-masse voting by minorities, who form a significant and decisive chunk of the voter bloc in several constituencies, further aided the DMK-Congress alliance. It is in this region that Naam Tamizhar Katchi (NTK), a Tamil nationalist party, has gained traction over the years with its leader S. Seeman resonating strongly among youngsters.

Vijay’s entry

In 2026, enter popular actor and Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK) chief Vijay. His arrival has upended the political landscape, making electoral outcomes unpredictable, as Vijay’s appeal cuts across the region, drawing sizeable support from Christians in communities like fisherfolk and Nadars.

Vijay’s entry threatens to split minority votes, which will be a huge setback to the DMK-Congress alliance, already beset with coordination issues. The two parties have sought the church’s intervention to convey the message that a split in their votes will only help the AIADMK-BJP. This might resonate among middle-aged and older people, but it is unlikely to impact youngsters.

The ruling alliance has had to change its strategy multiple times due to TVK’s arrival though the DMK banks on women-centric schemes and a traditional support base among several communities to sustain or better its 2021 performance.

It is also pitching “industrialisation” in southern Tamil Nadu, highlighting projects like the VinFast electric car manufacturing unit in Thoothukudi and other regional investments. The party also believes DMDK, which has considerable support among Naidus, in the alliance will help consolidate further.

In Kanyakumari, Thoothukudi, and Tirunelveli and parts of Tenkasi, the battle in most constituencies has turned truly triangular. In Madurai, Vijay seems to have a lot of support among several sections, while the contest in Dindigul, Theni, and Virudhunagar is largely bipolar. In Ramanathapuram, the DMK is banking on support from Muslims.

“At this point, it is very difficult to say which way the wind will blow. The fight between DMK and AIADMK is intense as always, but TVK is also closing in in many places. We don’t know who will win and lose. This will turn out to be one of the most unpredictable elections in the state,” Rajan, a tea stall owner in Madurai, told DH.

Support for Vijay in fishing hamlets

In fishing hamlets across Thoothukudi, Tirunelveli, and Kanyakumari, young people and men openly declare support for TVK, while middle-aged women waver between longstanding loyalties to AIADMK and a desire for change. Kanyakumari’s six seats feature truly triangular contests, with TVK mounting spirited challenges against DMK-Congress and AIADMK-BJP candidates.

Across communities, a majority of youngsters and a section of women support TVK, but whether it will turn into votes on April 23 is anybody’s guess.

For the AIADMK, the problems are far less than in 2021 but perceived anti-incumbency and an anti-DMK vote split by TVK and their own former interim general secretary V.K. Sasikala might spell trouble. Anti-DMK and anti-government votes.

AIADMK’s alliance with AMMK has boosted the party’s prospects in Thevar-dominated seats and a joint appearance by Edappadi K Palaniswami and T T V Dhinakaran is also helping.

Though there is anger against EPS for “systemically sidelining” all Thevar leaders, it is not as strong as it was in the 2021 and 2024 polls – it remains to be seen whether Sasikala can dent the alliance’s prospects as she goes around the region dubbing the AIADMK general secretary as a “traitor.”

She is joined by her former colleague, O Panneerselvam, now with DMK, who sings the same tune but the latter’s influence among the Thevars seems to have withered. OPS himself is banking on the DMK’s strength to win from Bodinayyakannur seat, though he has addressed over 40 meetings in Thevar-dominated areas against EPS.

Caste calculations

Piramalai Kallars, a sub-sect of Thevars, are likely to embrace the AIADMK once again after having voted against the party in the last two elections – they were upset over the 10.5 per cent horizontal reservation to Vanniyars within the Most Backward Class (MBC) category in the 2021 elections.

Devandra Kula Vellalars, a sub-sect of Dalits, are likely to be split between the DMK, AIADMK, and TVK while Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi of Thol. Thirumavalavan is contesting from Periyakulam in Theni district.

Ground visits revealed that AIADMK’s Two Leaves till holds sway across the region with many voting only for the symbol as it is synonymous with MGR. “We have always voted for Two Leaves and we won’t change our mind this time as well. The vote was always for the party, not for individuals,” Pandi, a shopkeeper in Theni district, told DH.

For the BJP too, this region is extremely important as the party hopes to better its 2021 performance of four seats – it did make inroads among the Thevars in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Yet campaign issues like Thiruparankundram Deepam find little traction, with Hindu identity mattering mainly in Kanyakumari.

The region is witnessing a four-cornered contest in a few constituencies, the most notable being in Karaikudi where NTK’s Seeman is taking on Congress’ S Mangudi, AMMK’s ‘Therbogi’ Pandi and TVK’s Dr Prabhu. This is the first time that Seeman is contesting from Southern Tamil Nadu and Karaikudi is in Sivaganga, his home district.

Vijay’s impact

Prof. K A Manikumar, who taught history at Manonmaniam Sundaranar University, Tirunelveli, told DH that Vijay’s impact in southern Tamil Nadu was striking, as young voters are quite decisive in voting for him.

“Southern Tamil Nadu is likely to surprise everyone this time. While crowds that throng Vijay’s rallies cannot be a mere indicator to assess his strength, they cannot be brushed aside either,” Manikumar said.

Vijay’s cinematic image attracts young women voters in districts like Tirunelveli, Kanyakumari, and Thoothukudi, and he is likely to draw adult women votes from both DMK and AIADMK.

“The traditional parties will suffer a setback, with the DMK and Congress also likely to witness a dent in their minority vote bank,” Manikumar added.

However, he said the sway for Two Leaves still continues in rural areas, where people above 55 years seem to be sticking to the AIADMK. “The voting pattern will change, but who it will benefit or hurt is unclear,” he added.