Tamil Nadu Assembly Elections 2026 | Vijay's entry puts Dravidian bipolarity to the test in a triangular contest

Chennai: Finally, it's curtains on probably the most intensely fought elections in the state’s recent history. A new force, Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK), has challenged the deeply entrenched Dravidian parties for control of Fort St. George, the seat of power of the Tamil Nadu government.

The primary question before the 5.73 crore electorate on April 23 is this: continue to allow the DMK or AIADMK, which have ruled the state alternatively since 1967, to hold sway, or vote for the emergence of an alternative in TVK chief and popular actor C Joseph Vijay?

Tamil nationalist S Seeman’s Naam Tamizhar Katchi (NTK) is also in the fray, even as expelled AIADMK leader V K Sasikala and PMK founder S Ramadoss have fielded candidates across the state.

Chief Minister M K Stalin, Leader of Opposition Edappadi K Palaniswami, and Seeman have criss-crossed the state, visiting every district to address public meetings during the month-long campaign, while Vijay chose to make his public appearances minimal even during the peak election season.

The contest is truly triangular in several parts of the state. TVK has successfully taken its symbol, the whistle, to the masses, despite the fledgling party lacking organisational strength on the ground.

What’s at stake for Stalin and Palaniswami?

Stalin sees this election as the best opportunity for him to script history by leading his party to a successive term for the first time since 1971 and becoming the first DMK Chief Minister to return to power for a consecutive term after completing his full tenure.

Tamil Nadu has never seen a Chief Minister walking casually into a roadside tea stall or a vegetable market and joining morning walkers by breaking protocols. He is banking on his “inclusive” image and his government's welfare measures -- especially those aimed at women -- and counts on the perceived split in anti-incumbency and anti-DMK votes to hold on to power.

For Palaniswami, a victory in the April 23 elections resulting in his party capturing power is needed to validate his leadership as the AIADMK has not won an election since J Jayalalithaa’s death in 2016. To ensure the DMK is sent packing, EPS made a volte-face and aligned with the BJP – to his credit, he cobbled up a strong coalition by bringing in PMK and AMMK and the NDA did pull off a spirited campaign in the last few weeks.

For long, the AIADMK has been the sole harvester of anti-DMK and anti-incumbency votes. That could change this time with Vijay’s arrival on the political scene. Vijay is expected to hurt the AIADMK by taking a chunk of those votes. The DMK could suffer from him making inroads into its minority and Dalit vote bank, which has stood behind the party since 2019.

The entry of Vijay

Projecting himself as the “primary force,” Vijay is the latest from Kollywood to test the waters in politics. The fortunes of his predecessors have had varied results. While M G Ramachandran, and J Jayalalithaa achieved phenomenal success, Sivaji Ganesan, and Kamal Hassan failed miserably, and Vijayakanth did alter the bipolar politics for a brief period but could not sustain it for long.

Even if Vijay may not be able to recreate the MGR magic in his debut elections, given the fragmented polity, he is certain to make a bigger impact than Vijayakanth, who secured 8.5 per cent votes in his first elections.

Whether Vijay is able to convert his popularity into votes or not, he seems to have successfully changed the narrative with the clamour for a change – an alternative party to the Dravidian parties – echoing across the state.

Field visits by this DH correspondent revealed that Vijay has become a discussion point in the drawing rooms of families with youngsters and a section of women being vocal about voting for him. “I won’t vote for him (Vijay), but my kids will. There is pressure from my kids to vote for TVK, but I am resisting,” Arumugam told DH in Madurai.

Though the DMK claims a “pro-incumbency wave” in the state, people in almost every part flagged the rampant sale and use of drugs, even in villages.

“Ganja is prevalent in every village, and even teenage children are addicted to it. This is the biggest problem in Tamil Nadu today. This leads to crimes, and the sale of ganja has to be stopped,” Rajeswari, a resident of Thirespuram fishing hamlet in Thoothukudi, told DH.

‘Whistle in urban areas’

This election also saw social and digital media flooded with surveys. Most were done by political strategy teams for different parties and passed off as “opinion polls.” The two conventional parties, DMK and AIADMK, splurged heavily on print and television advertisements. TVK stuck to digital ads.

Even as the whistle (TVK’s symbol) makes waves in cities and urban areas, it is irattai ilai and suriyan -- two leaves (AIADMK) and rising sun (DMK) -- that still hold sway across rural Tamil Nadu. NTK seems to be holding on to its “ideological vote bank,” though it is expected to lose youngsters’ votes to TVK, with Seeman travelling to every part of the state and addressing meetings.

The real impact of TVK could be seen in Chennai, where the DMK and AIADMK candidates are sweating it out. The new party has become the favourite of many middle-class and lower-middle-class households. Vijay himself entering the fray from Perambur might help the TVK perform in the metropolitan area much better than other regions.

‘Close contest’

R Kannan, biographer of Dravidian legends C N Annadurai and M G Ramachandran, told DH that opinion polls suggest that the April 23 elections could be a close race.

“It remains to be seen whether the DMK’s strong alliance is still cohesive compared to the NDA led by the AIADMK. The Dravidian parties are likely to do better where they are pitted against an ally of the opposition owing to the familiarity of the symbols of the Kazhagams,” he said.

He added that every leader -- Stalin and EPS -- drew crowds, while Vijay's turnout was the most impressive.

“While it is a trilateral fight, it remains to be seen who would get hurt more by the crowds that Vijay conjured during his campaign. A significant number who would have otherwise voted for Vijay might have voted for the AIADMK if he were not in the race,” he added.

The alliance factor

DMK, which boasted of an “ideological alliance,” suffered a setback to that image when it inducted Vijayakanth’s DMDK into the bloc and faced several embarrassing moments, especially when Congress began courting TVK openly and long-time alliance partners like VCK and CPI(M) complained about the number of seats being allotted to them.

Despite efforts by both parties, Congress’ Rahul Gandhi and Stalin could not share a stage and seek votes for the alliance – the bonhomie between the two leaders was the talk of the town during the 2024 Lok Sabha election.

On the other hand, the NDA, once criticized for non-cohesiveness amid ideological clashes and personal rivalries, put up a strong show of unity across the state in its final push against the formidable DMK-led alliance.

Palaniswami and AMMK chief T T V Dhinakaran appeared together on a campaign van in Thanjavur in the heart of the Cauvery Delta region last weekend sending the crowd into ruptures. Their joint appearance enthused cadres in the NDA camp with the AMMK holding a significant influence among Mukulathors, the caste to which Dhinakaran belongs – his party contesting alone in 2021 polls did hurt the AIADMK in the region.