Writing on the wall: How AIADMK lost its anti-DMK identity to TVK?

Over the past year, the AIADMK had repeatedly invited the TVK to join the NDA.

Chenaai: From day one, it was clear that actor-politician C Joseph Vijay and his Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK) were gunning for a big chunk of AIADMK votes, aiming to position themselves as the “prime challenger” to the DMK.

But the AIADMK just couldn't read the writing on the wall.

The party has now been pushed to the third slot in the April 23 assembly elections by winning or leading in just 48 seats, posting its second-worst performance in assembly elections since its inception in 1972. 

Party general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami not only acknowledged Vijay’s political rise a little too early but even claimed the actor-politician refrained from criticising the AIADMK in his first conference because “we did good work.”

The 54-year-old party did not stop there. While supporting Vijay during the Karur stampede and blaming the DMK could be seen as “political courtesy,” EPS made a strategic blunder by declaring that the “first step toward an alliance had been initiated” after spotting TVK flags at his public meeting.

Over the past year, the AIADMK had repeatedly invited the TVK to join the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), inadvertently betraying a fear that their existing alliance was not enough to unseat the DMK in the 2026 elections. 

‘Exposing the weakness’

It also exposed the inherent weakness of an NDA coalition that has failed to win a single election since its formation in 2019, sending a clear message: they believed they could not win without Vijay. It is an open secret that the TVK rejected the AIADMK’s alliance offer well before the latter officially rejoined the NDA in April 2025.

On the other hand, Vijay leveraged this weakness to frame the 2026 contest as a direct fight between the DMK and TVK. By branding the AIADMK and BJP as “others,” he successfully courted MGR and J Jayalalithaa loyalists and the anti-DMK vote bank, the cornerstone of the AIADMK’s support.

As a result of a series of costly mistakes -- from ceding the opposition space to then-BJP chief K. Annamalai, to ignoring calls for the unification of the AIADMK and refusing to acknowledge that the party was on the decline -- EPS now carries the ignominy of leading the AIADMK to a successive defeat in assembly elections for the first time in its history.

The party has not won an election since Jayalalithaa died in 2016, and with this latest defeat, EPS leadership is about to come under intense scrutiny. 

‘No excuse for 2026 loss’

While EPS at least had an excuse -- the confusion of “dual leadership” -- for the losses in the 2019 and 2021 polls, he has none for this election, as he has firmly controlled the party since 2022. 

BJP even left seat-sharing to EPS’s terms, giving him a free run -- though young leaders in the saffron party warned about weak seats being allotted to them -- and his campaign was powerful. 

He criss-crossed the state for nearly nine months trying to revive the party and even made peace with T T  V Dhinakaran; he single-handedly shouldered the campaign for the AIADMK, much like in the 2021 polls.

But somehow, the AIADMK-BJP combo lacked the necessary punch.

Perhaps Vijay’s projection of the election as TVK versus DMK captured the majority of anti-DMK and anti-incumbency votes straight into his camp, leading to his victory. 

‘Filling big shoes’

Jayalalithaa’s shoes were too big to fill, but EPS’s political moves ensured that the AIADMK completed its five-year tenure in government, thanks to ample help from the BJP. To be fair, EPS led the AIADMK to the best score in a losing election -- 66 seats -- in 2021 despite a 10-year anti-incumbency, but he veered off the runway due to intra-party affairs.

He consolidated the party behind him but could not use his authority to get the AIADMK battle-ready for elections. The party faded from the public imagination, losing the support of women and youngsters who were drawn to the AIADMK by Jayalalithaa’s charisma.

The AIADMK splitting into multiple factions -- though they were not particularly powerful -- built a public perception that the party was fragmented and weak.

Many saw the systematic expulsion of V K Sasikala, T T V Dhinakaran, and O Panneerselvam, and EPS’s reluctance to take them back, as being driven more by personal interest than the party's welfare. 

This rigidity effectively alienated the Mukulathors, a dominant community that has long supported the AIADMK, and fuelled criticism that he has converted the organisation into a “Gounder party.” Making peace with Sasikala might have sent a perception that he was being inclusive and wanted the party to be united, but he was stubborn.

Alliance with BJP

EPS could not halt the party's decline. Moreover, the AIADMK’s alliance with the BJP did not sit well with old-timers, especially after the saffron party began meddling in internal affairs -- for which Panneerselvam was a key reason.

His experiment of quitting the NDA in 2023 to wean away DMK alliance partners and stitch together a “secular front” for the 2026 elections also failed, with his lingering association with the BJP acting as a spoilsport. 

For the AIADMK, harnessing anti-DMK sentiment is practically the party's lifeblood. But EPS ceded that space to Annamalai for about four years and barely functioned as an Opposition outside the Assembly, and some of his actions as LoP have come back to bite him. 

‘Woefully inept’

AIADMK was never a vibrant opposition, but Jayalalithaa had the knack to turn around an election in three months, thanks to her charisma and leadership aura. He should have worked towards building that kind of momentum, but felt the anti-DMK and anti-incumbency votes would flock to him by default. But then Vijay burst onto the scene.

“It was Vijay who woke the AIADMK up from its deep slumber. EPS’s performance as the Leader of the Opposition was woefully inept and inadequate. The real LoPs then were two or three people: one was Governor R N Ravi, and another was Annamalai. Vijay rightly projected himself as the primary anti-DMK force and reaped the benefits,” author R. Kannan told DH.

However, Kannan, who wrote biographies of C N Annadurai and M G Ramachandran, said Palaniswami should be credited for being able to run a government for four-and-a-half years with or without BJP support, and for consolidating his leadership to become the undisputed leader in the post-Jayalalithaa era.

Senior journalist R Bhagwan Singh said the main reason for the AIADMK’s failure is that people in Tamil Nadu have gone for glamour and charisma. 

“This man (EPS) lacked both. He became the Chief Minister due to circumstances, manipulation, and opportunism, thanks to Sasikala. All this would not help in elections,” he said.

AIADMK, which ruled Tamil Nadu for 30 years, may have to go back to the drawing board to restore its lost glory. However, it will be an uphill task with Vijay emerging as the primary force. 

The biggest challenge for the AIADMK will be to re-infuse confidence in its cadre, as they face a double-edged challenge from both the TVK and their own ally, the BJP, which continues to make inroads into the state.