West Bengal Assembly Elections 2026 | Demographic shift may alter poll math; BJP win must for Hindus to remain majority: Sukanta Majumdar

Majumdar framed the 2026 assembly polls as a demographic turning point for the state.

Kolkata: Union minister Sukanta Majumdar claimed that "rapid demographic changes" under the TMC's rule in West Bengal could soon turn Hindus into a minority in several districts, making it "very difficult" for candidates belonging to the community to win elections in the future.

In an interview with PTI, the former state BJP president said the party has recalibrated its campaign after failing to come to power in the 2021 assembly polls and is now banking on strengthening booth-level organisation, pushing a more “Bengal-centric” narrative, and cleansing electoral rolls through the Special Intensive Revision (SIR), which he believes could alter the electoral arithmetic.

He framed the 2026 assembly polls as a demographic turning point for the state.

“The census has not happened yet, but Mamata Banerjee herself said Muslims constitute around 33 per cent of the population. It could be 33–35 per cent. This percentage will increase in the next five years. After that, it will become very difficult for Hindus to win elections,” he said.

Majumdar claimed that the 2026 assembly polls could therefore be the “last election” where Bengali Hindus remain the deciding factor in the state’s electoral outcomes, if the TMC retains power.

“The TMC will gradually be forced to give more tickets to Muslims instead of Hindus due to the change in demography. You can already hear demands for a Muslim deputy CM. These demands will be fulfilled in future, and eventually that could lead to a Muslim chief minister,” he claimed.

Drawing a historical parallel, Majumdar referred to communal violence during the Partition and the Great Calcutta Killing when the Muslim League was in power.

The BJP has repeatedly alleged that demographic changes in border districts of West Bengal are altering the state’s political landscape — an argument the party has used to sharpen its campaign narrative ahead of the 2026 assembly polls.

Muslims influence roughly one-third of the state’s assembly seats, creating a structural challenge for the BJP if the community votes overwhelmingly against it.

Majumdar said the election was about the future direction of the state.

“It is not just about saving Bengali Hindus. It is about saving West Bengal from turning into Pakistan or Afghanistan. Only the BJP can save Bengal,” he said.

Majumdar added that the party was banking on consolidation among Bengali Hindu voters and growing disillusionment with the ruling TMC.

“Hindus now understand that if they want to survive in West Bengal, they must remove this government,” he said.

He also alleged that the state faces growing influence of “fundamentalist forces” in some regions, particularly along the Bangladesh border, and said, “A large portion of West Bengal is already under the influence of criminals, fundamentalists and fanatics.” Asked about the emergence of Islamist-leaning political outfits in the state, Majumdar said the BJP, if elected, would take “necessary measures” against unrecognised madrassas allegedly involved in communal activities.

The election, he said, is not only about identity politics but also governance.

“There has been no major investment in 15 years. Gujarat gets around 17 per cent of India’s FDI, while West Bengal gets only 0.66 per cent. There is no development, no investment, the fiscal health of the state is poor, and the education system is declining,” he alleged.

The BJP had surged to 38 per cent vote share in the 2021 assembly polls after touching around 40 per cent in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, but that support failed to translate into power as the ruling TMC swept 213 of the 294 seats.

“Strategically, we have taken several initiatives — strengthening the booth organisation and booth-level cadre. Our campaigning strategy has also changed. It is now more Bengali or Bengal-centric,” he said.

Majumdar insisted that the numbers show the BJP’s base remains intact.

“If there were organisational weaknesses, we wouldn’t have had 38–39 per cent vote share. The contest in Bengal is bipolar and many seats were decided by very narrow margins,” he said.

According to him, nearly 40 seats in 2021 were decided by margins below 5,000 votes and several others within 8,000 votes — the gaps he believes could swing if alleged irregularities in voter lists are eliminated.

“Dead voters’ names, duplicate ones and other irregularities were used. In the Barrackpore Lok Sabha election, we did a study showing around 40,000 false votes were cast against Arjun Singh,” he claimed.

He argued that the ongoing revision of electoral rolls has removed thousands of “dead or invalid” voters from several seats, which he believes will change the arithmetic of close contests.

“If you analyse 2021, you will see that in many Muslim-dominated booths turnout was above 90 per cent, sometimes even 98 or 99 per cent. In 14 booths the turnout was 100 per cent,” he said.

The TMC, however, has mounted a political offensive against the SIR exercise, accusing the BJP of engineering large-scale deletions of Bengali voters. Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has moved the Supreme Court, alleging that millions of names — including many from the Matua community — were removed from the rolls.

“There is no damage. As soon as the list came out, our workers started helping people fill up Form 6. Eligible voters will get their names added,” he said, while rejecting the charge.

Unlike the TMC, which is led by Mamata Banerjee, the BJP has not projected a chief ministerial face for the election.

“Why should we play on Mamata Banerjee’s pitch? If India prepares a pace pitch against Australia in Mohali, India will lose. The BJP plays a team game,” Majumdar said, citing the party’s victories in Delhi and Odisha without projecting a chief ministerial candidate.

The BJP’s decision to field leader of the opposition, Suvendu Adhikari, from Bhabanipur, the CM’s constituency and one of Kolkata’s most politically symbolic seats, is part of that strategy, he added. “We want to defeat Mamata directly,” Majumdar said.