<p>New Delhi: By declaring candidates for all but three seats, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) has primed itself for a four-cornered contest for the upcoming West Bengal Assembly polls, as Mamata Banerjee’s party aims to consolidate minority votes that influence the outcome in more than a third of the total seats.</p><p>The TMC has released its list of 291 candidates, leaving three seats for its junior ally in the Darjeeling hills, closing doors for a pre-poll tie-up with the Congress.</p> .<p>The Bengal CM's message is abundantly clear: She considers her party the strongest force to challenge the BJP in West Bengal, leaving little room for other I.N.D.I.A-bloc partners.</p><p>For a party born out of the struggle that ended the 34-year Left Front rule in West Bengal, there is little room for an adjustment between the TMC and the CPM. </p><p>An alliance with the Congress could have been an option, but the TMC has been inclined to go solo, though it took Congress support to dislodge the Left in 2011. A year later, Banerjee snapped ties with the Congress in the state, but remained part of the UPA at the Centre.</p> .<p>The TMC's positioning can be better understood from the impact of pre-poll tie-ups in Bengal's electoral politics.</p><p>Scenario 1: The Left and the Congress have a pre-poll alliance. There is a historic picture of Congress leader Rahul Gandhi and former West Bengal CM and CPM veteran Buddhadeb Bhattacharya sharing the stage for a pre-poll tie-up in 2016. The alliance polled close to 35% of the votes against the TMC's 45%. The BJP was relegated to the fourth position.</p><p>This is the least favourable option for the TMC. Though it would want to emerge as the single-largest party, it would prefer to avoid a strong Left-Congress alternative, which is a viable alternative for Muslims voters in the future, especially in pockets where the Congress is traditionally strong, like the Malda-Murshidabad belt.</p> .<p>While the BJP remains a strong challenger, its political constituency does not overlap with the TMC.</p><p>Scenario 2: The Left and the Congress having an informal arrangement is more suitable to the TMC, which helps it consolidate the minority votes. It played out in the 2021 Assembly elections. </p><p>For the Congress, however, any pre-poll tie up with the Left in Bengal seems to have had a spillover effect in Kerala, where the CPM-led LDF and the Congress-led UDF are pitched against one another.</p> .<p>The Kerala and Bengal Assemblies' terms run concurrently. In 2021, Kerala CM Pinarayi Vijayan bucked the trend to lead the LDF to a second consecutive victory in the state. The loss, entirely, was that of the Congress.</p><p>Scenario 3: The Left and the Congress fight separately. This translates to a quadrangular contest, with the TMC emerging as the most credible force for anti-BJP voters.</p><p>The only flip side to this arrangement is the possibility that a section of the Left could tactically switch to the BJP if they feel the CPM and its allies are not in serious contention.</p> .<p>As for the Congress, the party — after experimenting with both formal and informal tie-ups with the Left — seems to have conceded more space to the TMC since the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.</p><p>First, it replaced Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury, a known Mamata critic and five-time party Congress MP from Baharampur who lost the 2024 LS polls, as the state chief with the relatively-unknown Subhankar Sarkar.</p><p>The Congress top leadership has hardly visited Bengal in the last two years, leaving the field open for the TMC.</p><p>But the question is, will the TMC reciprocate the Congress’ concessions in kind? In the past, Banerjee did not refrain from queering the pitch in states like Goa, where the Congress is locked in a direct contest against the BJP. </p>
<p>New Delhi: By declaring candidates for all but three seats, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) has primed itself for a four-cornered contest for the upcoming West Bengal Assembly polls, as Mamata Banerjee’s party aims to consolidate minority votes that influence the outcome in more than a third of the total seats.</p><p>The TMC has released its list of 291 candidates, leaving three seats for its junior ally in the Darjeeling hills, closing doors for a pre-poll tie-up with the Congress.</p> .<p>The Bengal CM's message is abundantly clear: She considers her party the strongest force to challenge the BJP in West Bengal, leaving little room for other I.N.D.I.A-bloc partners.</p><p>For a party born out of the struggle that ended the 34-year Left Front rule in West Bengal, there is little room for an adjustment between the TMC and the CPM. </p><p>An alliance with the Congress could have been an option, but the TMC has been inclined to go solo, though it took Congress support to dislodge the Left in 2011. A year later, Banerjee snapped ties with the Congress in the state, but remained part of the UPA at the Centre.</p> .<p>The TMC's positioning can be better understood from the impact of pre-poll tie-ups in Bengal's electoral politics.</p><p>Scenario 1: The Left and the Congress have a pre-poll alliance. There is a historic picture of Congress leader Rahul Gandhi and former West Bengal CM and CPM veteran Buddhadeb Bhattacharya sharing the stage for a pre-poll tie-up in 2016. The alliance polled close to 35% of the votes against the TMC's 45%. The BJP was relegated to the fourth position.</p><p>This is the least favourable option for the TMC. Though it would want to emerge as the single-largest party, it would prefer to avoid a strong Left-Congress alternative, which is a viable alternative for Muslims voters in the future, especially in pockets where the Congress is traditionally strong, like the Malda-Murshidabad belt.</p> .<p>While the BJP remains a strong challenger, its political constituency does not overlap with the TMC.</p><p>Scenario 2: The Left and the Congress having an informal arrangement is more suitable to the TMC, which helps it consolidate the minority votes. It played out in the 2021 Assembly elections. </p><p>For the Congress, however, any pre-poll tie up with the Left in Bengal seems to have had a spillover effect in Kerala, where the CPM-led LDF and the Congress-led UDF are pitched against one another.</p> .<p>The Kerala and Bengal Assemblies' terms run concurrently. In 2021, Kerala CM Pinarayi Vijayan bucked the trend to lead the LDF to a second consecutive victory in the state. The loss, entirely, was that of the Congress.</p><p>Scenario 3: The Left and the Congress fight separately. This translates to a quadrangular contest, with the TMC emerging as the most credible force for anti-BJP voters.</p><p>The only flip side to this arrangement is the possibility that a section of the Left could tactically switch to the BJP if they feel the CPM and its allies are not in serious contention.</p> .<p>As for the Congress, the party — after experimenting with both formal and informal tie-ups with the Left — seems to have conceded more space to the TMC since the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.</p><p>First, it replaced Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury, a known Mamata critic and five-time party Congress MP from Baharampur who lost the 2024 LS polls, as the state chief with the relatively-unknown Subhankar Sarkar.</p><p>The Congress top leadership has hardly visited Bengal in the last two years, leaving the field open for the TMC.</p><p>But the question is, will the TMC reciprocate the Congress’ concessions in kind? In the past, Banerjee did not refrain from queering the pitch in states like Goa, where the Congress is locked in a direct contest against the BJP. </p>