West Bengal Assembly Elections 2026 | TMC banks on Didi, doles & demography to hold off BJP

Mamata’s biggest strength — and hindrance— is party’s grassroots penetration

New Delhi: Covering the Bihar polls last year, I landed at Bagdogra airport and travelled westwards towards Patna — a trip in sharp contrast to the experiences on the road to Kolkata for the West Bengal polls.

In Bihar, the state, the people and the political institutions operate in silos, with the bureaucracy acting as the nodal link between them. Political mobilisation is defined by the socio-economic re-stratification engendered by the Mandal rupture. Perceived caste interests, kinship and apprehensions of the ‘other’ influence voter choices.

In West Bengal, local panchayats — dominated by the party in power — connect the state and its subjects by regulating the flow of largesse. It’s a system initiated and perfected by the Left during its three decades of rule.

When Mamata Banerjee took over as chief minister in 2011, she did not tinker with the mechanisms. Party secretaries were replaced by TMC loyalists. In some cases, only party affiliations changed while the managers remained the same.

As she seeks another term, Mamata's biggest strength — and her Achilles' heel — is the TMC's grassroots penetration, marshalled by sectoral chiefs.

Seema (name changed), who runs a small roadside eatery near Reva Basti in Alipurduar’s Kalchini block, says, “I get Rs 1,700 in my account every month. Did will come back, you just see.”

Opinion among her customers varies. Sudha and Mani, stopping by with their children for afternoon snacks, remain non-committal. A couple of daily tea garden labourers, who received land pattas and one-time cash support to construct a house, ask when the proposed metalling of the road to their village will be taken up.

The impact of doles is tapering off, though their sedimentary effect remains. For some beneficiaries, Rs 1,700 in hand is better than Rs 3,000 in the bush.

The electoral return on cash handouts is being eroded by two factors. First, a section of women and youth feel that doles cannot sustain them through the rest of their lives. Second, pilferage in the execution of schemes has hurt many beneficiaries.

More than Mamata, people blame local fiefs and leaders for corruption.

It is understandable that the TMC has sought to blunt local anti‑incumbency by building an overarching campaign around its leader — the ubiquitous Didi — appealing to people to vote for her rather than the candidates. The image of the 71‑year‑old lone ranger holding out against the BJP’s determined onslaught is a frame the party has tried to recreate for this campaign.

Despite headwinds, the share of beneficiary votes supplemented by Mamata’s Bangla sub-nationalism will determine the ruling party’s tally.

The TMC’s biggest advantage is Bengal’s demography. The state, with over 30% minority population, gives Mamata's party a handsome headstart over its rivals. Fears over citizenship triggered by SIR deletions seem to have further consolidated minorities in the state. 

BJP’s chances

Since Modi’s ascension in national politics, the BJP views this as its best chance to gain power in West Bengal. 

The party's performance in Muslim-dominated seats, which number between 100 and 115, hinges on a division in Muslim votes.

An SIR-triggered strong minority consolidation limits the BJP’s catchment area to 70% of the voters. If even 10% of this bloc — irrespective of party affiliation — does not vote for the BJP, the votershed for the saffron outfit shrinks to 63%.

So, to win Bengal, the BJP must secure 70% or more Hindu votes. That is possible if the state is witnessing religious polarisation at the grassroots.