West Bengal Assembly Elections | Can lotus bloom in TMC bastion of South 24 Parganas amid SIR effect?

Basanti: Outside Kolkata’s New Town area, the sky is dotted with numerous brick kiln chimneys while the landscape below is dominated by countless fish farms. The majority of both, the residents say, are illegal and controlled by local politicians from the ruling party.

Welcome to the South 24 Parganas district where Trinamool Congress captured 30 of 31 seats in 2021 assembly polls with a lone seat going to the Indian Secular Front. In 2016, Mamata Banerjee’s party won 29 of 31 seats while CPI(M) bagged two.

This time, the principal challenger BJP will face one of its most intense poll battle in this district that stretches from Jadavpur, Behala and Tollygunj in southern Kolkata to Budge Budge, Diamond Harbour, Basanti, Canning and Gosaba in Sundarban.

“Everyone here knew who are behind these illegal brick kilns and fish farms, but no one speaks out of fear. Against one license, they set up multiple units in complete violence of the rules,” said Manoj Bose, a local.

While muscle power and voter intimidation are always reported from South 24 Parganas, the Special Intensive Revision will have a key role this time in this minority dominated district that leads the state in logical discrepancies, including over 9.3 lakh forms flagged for mismatches in father's names.

In a major security incident, the National Investigation Agency has registered a case following the recovery of 79 crude bombs in the Bhangar – only seat not won by TMC in 2021.

The security agencies are on high alert after violent scuffles between TMC, BJP, and ISF supporters have been reported in Haroa. Chances of poll violence are high in this district.

BJP was not at all a force here in 2016, but surged ahead in 2021, securing almost 32% vote to position itself the second largest party ahead of the Left front.

Since 2021, the BJP has seen localised gains and in some specific booths across the region, its vote share rose from approximately 43% in 2021 to over 53% by the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

The saffron party continues to lag behind in South 24 Parganas compared to other parts of Bengal, largely due to the district's high concentration of Muslim voters (over 30% in most seats) who historically consolidate behind the TMC.

Aware of the drawback, top BJP leaders like Narendra Modi and Amit Shah addressed multiple rallies and roadshows seeking support for the saffron candidates. “It will not be a cakewalk for TMC this time,” said Swapan Mandal, a school teacher in Gosaba.

In-fighting within TMC because of which the party changed some of its candidates like sitting MLA Jogranjan Haldar at Kulpi and Alok Jaldar at Raidighi may come as an added advantage.

A third dimension is added by the Left front. At Raidighi, the CPI(M) fielded veteran leader Kanti Ganguly’s son Samya Ganguly, who is carrying out a spirited campaign banking on the goodwill of his father and the Left vote bank.

In another part of the district, another senior Left leader and former Kolkata Mayor Bikas Ranjan Bhattacharaya is locked in a three-way fight against incumbent Debabrata Majumdar (TMC) and Sarbori Mukherjee (BJP) at Jadapur.

“A split in anti-TMC votes between the CP(M) and BJP will decide his fate,” said a resident of Santoshpur, a part of Jadavpur constituency.