West Bengal Assembly elections: Candidate selection key test for TMC amid anti-incumbency, SIR debate

Kolkata: As West Bengal heads into another important poll battle, the TMC faces one of its most critical organisational exercises in recent years -- crafting a candidate list that can blunt anti-incumbency, recalibrate local political equations and sustain the party's dominance after 15 years in power.

Within political circles, the selection process is being viewed as a crucial test of the ruling party's ability to balance experience with youth while navigating a complex electoral landscape shaped by anti-incumbency pressures and shifting political and electoral narratives due to SIR ahead of the polls.

With polling for the state's 294 assembly seats scheduled in two phases on April 23 and April 29, the yet-to-be-announced TMC candidate list would indicate how party supremo and Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee plans to recalibrate her electoral strategy for a fourth consecutive mandate. In the 2021 assembly elections, the TMC won 215 of the state's 294 seats, while the BJP bagged 77.

However, party insiders say the upcoming election may see substantial changes in the candidate list, particularly in constituencies the party lost in 2021. Several sitting MLAs could also face replacement in seats where the party won, but there is dissatisfaction against incumbents or organisational feedback suggests the need for change.

Sources indicated that the leadership is also considering interchanging candidates between constituencies in certain cases, particularly where experienced leaders could be deployed in politically challenging seats.

Party insiders say the selection process is guided by a mix of political calculations: the performance of sitting MLAs, their perceived 'winnability', the need to inject younger faces into the organisation and the challenge of countering fatigue against long-serving legislators.

The exercise assumes greater significance against the backdrop of the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls, following nearly 64 lakh deletions and around 60 lakh under scrutiny, which has become a contentious political issue in the state and is influencing campaign narratives in several constituencies.

Sources within the party said the leadership has been analysing constituency-level feedback, internal surveys and organisational reports to assess whether to retain incumbents or introduce new faces, particularly in seats where dissatisfaction against individual MLAs has surfaced.

The numbers underline the scale of the balancing act. Of the TMC MLAs elected in 2021, around 90 were first-time legislators. About 55 to 60 are serving their second term, while roughly 30 to 35 have been elected three times. Around 15 to 18 are four-term legislators and nearly 10 have won five terms.

At the same time, party insiders estimate that close to 35 legislators in the present assembly are above 75 years of age or will cross that threshold before the next election, prompting internal discussions about generational change.

The debate over whether the party should introduce an informal age threshold has gathered momentum in recent years, particularly after next-gen leaders emphasised the need for generational transition in politics.

However, senior leaders say no rigid rule has been adopted and the final decision will depend on political realities in individual constituencies.

TMC MP Sougata Roy said the candidate selection process would remain a carefully calibrated exercise.

"The selection of candidates will be handled primarily by the CM in consultation with Abhishek Banerjee and the party's election strategists. They will assess the political environment in each constituency and examine the performance and prospects of candidates before taking a final decision," he said.

He indicated that age alone would not determine the fate of sitting MLAs.

"There is no fixed formula based on age. Individual candidates will be evaluated on their track record and their prospects in the coming election," Roy said.

Apart from performance reviews, the leadership is also believed to be weighing the political implications of corruption allegations that have surfaced against some leaders in recent years.

TMC vice president Jaiprakash Majumdar said the guiding principle for the party remains electoral viability.

"Mamata Banerjee has an unmatched understanding of West Bengal's political landscape. She knows which candidates have the strongest connect with voters and who is best positioned to win. Ultimately, winnability and public acceptance will determine the final list," Majumdar said.

Alongside reviewing incumbents, the party leadership is also considering bringing in younger leaders who have emerged within the organisation over the past few years.

Political analyst Suman Bhattacharya said the candidate list could reflect an attempt by the TMC to combine continuity with controlled change.

"The leadership appears keen to introduce a younger brigade in constituencies where anti-incumbency against sitting MLAs is visible. At the same time, the party has always relied on leaders with strong grassroots networks, so the final list is likely to balance experience with generational transition," he added.

Another factor shaping the list is the party's effort to increase the representation of women candidates, reflecting the political importance of women voters who have emerged as a key support base for the TMC.

Sources said discussions are also underway about discouraging multiple members of the same family from simultaneously holding elected positions.