What is ‘Super El Nino’ and why is it worrisome for India?

Imagine the Pacific ocean to be a giant bathtub near the equator which constantly interacts with the atmosphere around it. With each interaction, the massive water body influences how winds flow across the globe and control the climatic patterns in the world.

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has been monitoring a rapidly increasing sea surface temperature over the Pacific, suggesting the development of ‘El Nino’ conditions in the upcoming months, a notorious climatic pattern associated with above normal land surface temperatures, poor cloud formation and rainfall scarcity. 

Many influencers on social media are circulating ‘alert’ videos on the rising mercury in the country and its effects on the health. 

As per the data obtained from AQI (Air Quality Index) website, 98 out of the 100 hottest cities in the world lie within the borders of India. The country, which is under the spell of a heatwave, is seen repeating similar weather patterns as observed in 2024, the hottest year recorded in India.

As per recent reports, two Odisha women doing census work succumbed to alleged heatstroke-like symptoms. People are increasingly getting affected by gastrointestinal discomfort induced by the excessive heat. 

While some are anticipating relief showers, others are skeptical about it, fearing it could be another dreadful year.

What is El Nino?

There is a constant tug of war between the ocean temperatures and wind patterns. Scientists call it the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

This climate pattern oscillates between three phases: El Nino (the warm phase), El Nina (the cold phase) and the neutral phase. This is primarily caused by differences in temperature and pressure, causing warm air to rise and cold air to sink, affecting weather systems across the world. This movement is part of a bigger air current loop called the Walker circulation.

Under neutral conditions, the trade winds flow from east to west across the equatorial Pacific region, pushing the warm surface water towards the western Pacific which becomes warm and moist. This leads to cloud formation in the Asian subcontinent. Meanwhile, the cold water rises in the eastern Pacific region, particularly near South America which becomes dry and cold.

When these trade winds lose or gain too much momentum, this directly impacts the water circulation in the Pacific.

In case of El Nino (the warmer phase), the trade winds get weakened and are unable to push warm water towards the west, causing warm water to remain stuck in the central Pacific region and heating the air above it. This has two major consequences: the central and eastern Pacific ocean gets heated more than usual and it also causes cloud formation to occur away from Southeast Asia, more towards the central Pacific.

In India, it could mean some places getting unusual rainfall and others experiencing drought.

Also, an El Nino is declared when the surface sea temperature causes 0.5 degrees Centigrade. As per WMO, it occurs every two to seven years and can last around nine to twelve months.

As per multiple reports, this year a developing El Nino in the Pacific can turn into a ‘super El Nino’ due to intense heating of the sea surface in the central and eastern regions. 

The predicted ‘Super El Nino’ could initiate some massive changes in the planet’s climate system and can become a big meteorological event, said a report published in DownToEarth. 

How to beat the heat?

Many healthcare experts are raising concerns about the rising global temperatures and its impact on public health. 

Speaking to DH, Dr Vikramjeet Singh, a senior consultant in internal medicine at Aakash Healthcare said: “People often underestimate how prolonged heat exposure can be. Simple precautions like drinking enough water, wearing light clothing and avoiding direct sun exposure can go a long way in preventing serious health conditions.”

With heatwaves increasing both in intensity and frequency, heat has to be reconsidered as a public health hazard causing serious damage and not merely as a weather fluctuation, said the expert.