Explained | The implications of India's 1.9 fertility rate

The data estimates that the total fertility (TFR) rate has fallen in both rural and urban areas, but is worse in urban populations (1.5). Meanwhile, the TFR rate for the rural population sits exactly at the replacement level (2.1).

India’s total fertility rate (TFR) has dropped to 1.9, according to the recently released Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report 2024. Meanwhile, the national capital, New Delhi, witnessed the lowest fertility rate estimated at 1.2, well below the replacement threshold of 2.1. Meanwhile, Bihar recorded the highest TFR at 2.9. 

Several other states and union territories - Kerala (1.3), Andhra Pradesh (1.4), Jammu and Kashmir (1.4), Punjab (1.4), Himachal Pradesh (1.5), Karnataka (1.5), Maharashtra (1.4), Tamil Nadu (1.3), West Bengal (1.3), Telangana (1.5), Odisha (1.6), Gujarat (1.7), Uttarakhand (1.7), Assam (1.9) and Haryana (1.9), have also reached TFR below the replacement level. The SRSS report is the largest to provide annual estimates of fertility and mortality indicators at the state and national level. 

The data estimates that the TFR has fallen in both rural and urban areas, but is worse in urban populations (1.5). Meanwhile, the TFR rate for the rural population sits exactly at the replacement level. 

The significance of replacement level 

The replacement level is the fertility rate at which a population replaces itself from one generation to the next. A research paper published in the International Journal of Novel Research and Development (IJNRD) explains: “The standard rate of 2.1 is to ensure the replacement of the woman and her partner. Another 0.1 children per woman are added to counteract the infant mortality rate.” 

According to the United Nations’ population division, countries experiencing below replacement facilities (lower than 2.1 children per woman) indicate that a generation is not producing enough children to replace itself, eventually leading to a reduction in population.

The shifting infertility landscape 

India is seeing a shifting trend characterised by high fertility rates and rapid population expansion to a complex era of declining birth rates and emerging crisis of involuntary childlessness, a comprehensive review published in the International Journal of Research in Pharmacy and Allied Science (IJRPAC) notes.  

India is quietly witnessing one of the most significant demographic shifts in modern history. The country once associated with joint families and rising birth rates is headed in a different direction now. As the data depicts, fertility rates in India have been on a constant decline. It dropped from 3.4 children per woman during the 1992-1993 period to an average of 2 in 2019-2021. 

The significant decline is attributed to multiple factors. Experts say that delayed pregnancy, better accessibility to contraceptive methods, financial independence, stress, lifestyle changes, poor sleep patterns, smoking, alcohol consumption, and environmental toxins are collectively contributing to it. 

What does it mean for India?

The declining fertility rate will create a population with fewer young adults, similar to China or Japan. This will increase the dependency ratio and create a country with a reduced working-age population, the IJNRD study notes. Meanwhile, increasing spending on social security, pensions, and geriatric care. Low TFR can affect economic productivity and growth due to a shortage of skilled workers, potentially leading to economic stagnation. 

The changing family dynamics might disrupt traditional support systems like grandparental care, leading to increased elder loneliness, among other health issues.