150 years of IMD: Shaping a resilient future

While the agency has achieved milestones in weather predictions & saving lives, it will have to strengthen itself further to brace for climate change-fuelled extreme events.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) stands as a cornerstone of India’s scientific progress, completing 150 years of dedicated service to the nation. Such a milestone is not only a celebration of past achievements but also a springboard for envisioning a future where IMD continues to safeguard lives and livelihoods with even greater precision and innovation.

IMD was established in 1875 against the backdrop of the havoc caused by a tropical cyclone in 1864 and two famines in 1866 and 1871. While it focused on shipping, agriculture and aviation in early years, its mandate has broadened significantly in recent times. IMD operates an extensive observational network comprising over 2,000 surface observatories, 6,000 rain gauges, more than 100 upper-air observatories, 39 Doppler weather radars and advanced satellite systems.

For a long time, short-range weather forecasts were prepared using the synoptic method, which had inherent limitations. The Monsoon Mission, launched by the Union Ministry of Earth Sciences, has significantly enhanced IMD’s forecasting capabilities using Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) methods. By 2017, the resolution of weather prediction models improved tenfold, from 120 km to 12 km, while regional models advanced from 27 km to 3 km. The lead period for these models expanded from 48 hours to 10 days with three-hour intervals. IMD now also operates coupled climate models for extended-range predictions (10-30 days) and seasonal forecasts extending up to nine months.

Medium-range forecasts have proven invaluable for Indian farmers, guiding critical agricultural decisions, especially for low-income groups. IMD’s tropical cyclone forecasts and warnings have become one of its flagship services. After the devastating 1999 Odisha super cyclone, IMD improved its cyclone forecasting capabilities, significantly reducing casualties. Similarly, advancements in predicting heavy rainfall events, particularly in day-3 forecasts, have helped mitigate the impact of such events. The ambitious Thunderstorm Project, launched in 2017, has also enhanced the accuracy of 24-hour thunderstorm predictions and three-hour nowcast guidance. IMD’s seamless heatwave forecasts across short-range to seasonal timescales have achieved high success rates, saving countless lives. Improved weather warnings with longer lead times and greater accuracy have empowered disaster managers and the public to minimize losses.

While significant progress has been achieved, several areas still require improvement. The accuracy of deterministic forecasts for heavy rainfall events remains limited to 1-2 days, which poses a challenge in providing timely inputs for flood forecasting. Extending the lead time for accurately predicting heavy rainfall and associated flooding continues to be a critical need. Localised weather forecasts, particularly for major cities, and warnings for severe weather phenomena like lightning demand further refinement to enhance their precision and timeliness. Similarly, while seasonal forecasts have seen significant advancements, they are yet to fully realise their potential predictability, leaving room for improvement. Addressing these gaps is essential to further strengthen the reliability and utility of weather and climate predictions for diverse applications.

Climate change poses significant challenges to weather forecasting, as it amplifies the complexity and unpredictability of atmospheric systems. Rising global temperatures intensify extreme weather events, making them more frequent, severe and erratic. Additionally, climate change alters regional climates, causing phenomena like shifting monsoon patterns or increased droughts, further straining forecasting capabilities.

What IMD should do to further improve forecasts?

To enhance forecast accuracy, IMD should prioritise upgrading its observation networks by incorporating advanced technologies such as crowdsourcing, CubeSats, IoT (Internet of Things) devices and unmanned platforms. These innovations can significantly improve data quality and forecasting efficiency. A major challenge remains in accurately representing physical processes, particularly cloud physics, within numerical models. Future advancements in numerical weather prediction are expected to focus on global ensemble prediction systems with much higher horizontal resolutions of 1-3 km, allowing for a more precise representation of physical phenomena.

Currently, IMD is transitioning to an ensemble prediction system with a 6-km horizontal resolution, a notable improvement over the existing 12-km resolution. The Earth Sciences Ministry has recently enhanced its computational capacity, acquiring systems with 22 petaflop speeds. However, to achieve further resolution improvements to 3 km, additional computational resources will be required. IMD should also extensively leverage Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) technologies to refine model physics, optimise forecasting processes and develop user-specific application tools.

Equally important is strengthening the last-mile connection to ensure weather forecasts reach end users effectively, enabling timely and informed decision-making. This can be achieved by using simple, clear and localised language, avoiding technical jargon and focusing on actionable insights, leveraging advanced technology, collaborating with local networks, utilising diverse media channels and establishing feedback mechanisms.

The recently launched Mausam Mission is a landmark initiative aimed at enhancing India’s monsoon prediction capabilities. By continuously improving its forecasting systems and outreach strategies, IMD can maintain its reputation as a global leader in weather and climate services.

(Author is the Vice Chancellor of Atria University and a former secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences)