Assembly Elections 2026 Exit Polls Predictions: BJP to defeat TMC in Bengal with clean sweep in Assam; UDF's comeback in Kerala; DMK to retain Tamil Nadu

Exit polls also brought some cheers to the Congress, projecting victory for the UDF alliance in Kerala after a gap of 10 years.

New Delhi: Exit polls on Wednesday placed the BJP on the winning side in the Assembly elections predicting Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress’ exit from power in West Bengal and the saffron party likely to emerge stronger in Assam by bagging more than two-third seats.

It also brought some cheers to the Congress, projecting victory for the UDF alliance in Kerala after a gap of 10 years but without a resounding victory over the CPI(M)-led LDF, while MK Stalin-led DMK alliance is likely to get the better of AIADMK-BJP coalition and actor Vijay-led TVK in Tamil Nadu.

The surprise in the pack was the Axis My India poll as it put the TVK on the driver seat ahead of DMK and AIADMK coalitions in a possible hung assembly in Tamil Nadu. In Puducherry, the exit polls preferred the incumbent AINRC-AIADMK-BJP coalition over Congress-DMK coalition.

Of the six exit polls, only one – People’s Pulse – gave the Trinamool Congress, which has been in power since 2011, a shot at power with 177-187 out of 294 seats while BJP may end up with 95-110 seats. The half-way mark is 148 and in the five other polls, the BJP is predicted to get 142 to 175 seats.

These are just predictions and there were several instances in the past when exit polls proved wrong.

Bengal witnessed 92-93 per cent polling conducted in two phases after the voter list saw massive pruning following a Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls, and it is to be seen how it has impacted the result. Trinamool sources rejected the predictions, claiming that their assessment is that they were getting a “historic” 230+ seats this time.

The poll by Matrize gave the BJP 146-171 seats while Chanakya Strategies put the number at 142-171 as against Trinamool’s predicted seats of 125-140 and 130-140 seats respectively. P-Marq gave BJP 150-175, the highest range among polls, while Trinamool is likely to bag 118-138. Poll Diary gave BJP 142-171 while Praja Polls put it at 150-60 as against 99-127 and 85-110 respectively for its rival.

All the seven exit polls gave the BJP a resounding victory in Assam with seats ranging between 82 and 101 in an Assembly of 126 seats. Congress-led alliance is likely to get 22-40 seats while AIUDF is predicted not to do well. Axis My India predicted BJP to win 88-100 seats while JVC’s number was 88-101 and Vote Vibe’s 90-100.

Seven polls in Kerala showed the Congress-led UDF cruising to victory but not with emphatic margins as they projected. If the coalition wins, no Left government will be in the country for the first time in decades.

With the half-mark fixed at 71, the UDF is predicted to win 66-85 seats while the CPI(M)-led LDF may get seats in a range of 49-69 seats. Two polls – PMarq and People’s Insight – predicted a photo-finish with UDF getting 71-79 and 66-76 seats as against LDF’s 62-69 and 58-68 respectively.

Axis My India, Matrize, People’s Pulse, JVC and Chanakya have given the UDF an edge over the LDF.

In Tamil Nadu where the half-way mark is 118, five exit polls predicted victory for the DMK-led alliance while two gave it to the AIADMK alliance.

An eighth one – Axis My India – predicted a hung Assembly but put Vijay’s TVK on top, the only one to give it 98-120 seats while all others gave in a range of 8-40 seats. DMK alliance was given 92-110 seats while AIADMK coalition was relegated to a distant third with 22-32 seats.

Matrize gave DMK 122-132 while PMarq put the number at 125-145 while Praja Polls gave the maximum 148-168. The JVC polls gave the AIADMK coalition the edge with 128-147 as against DMK’s 75-95 and TVK’s 8-15. Another poll to give AIADMK the edge was Vote Vibe, which predicted 114-124 seats for AIADMK and 103-113 seats for DMK.

In Puducherry, N Rangaswamy-led AINRC may once again assume power with a comfortable majority in the 30-member assembly. Three exit polls predicted victory for the coalition with seats ranging between 16 and 25. The Congress-DMK coalition may have to settle with 6-12 seats, according to the exit polls.