Nitish Kumar's volte face not an impromptu decision

Nitish Kumar's exit from the Mahagathbandhan for 'greener pastures' is most likely not an impromptu decision.

The script for his 'ghar wapsi' before he was sworn in as the chief minister of Bihar for a record ninth time on January 28 had been written since September when he met Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the G20 summit in New Delhi. Nitish was one of the dignitaries invited to the occasion on September 9 and 10.

The much-publicised handshake with PM, amid frosty ties, helped Nitish break the ice and put his inflated ego on the back burner. The bonhomie eventually culminated fruitfully when Modi personally made a telephone call to Nitish’s aide Ramnath Thakur on January 22 informing the JD(U) Rajya Sabha MP that his father and veteran Socialist leader Karpoori Thakur (former Chief Minister of Bihar) had been conferred with the Bharat Ratna.

A protege of Karpoori, Nitish lost no time in thanking Modi profusely on January 23, during the veteran Socialist’s centenary celebration, as it was a long-pending demand made by Nitish for his mentor.

But this was not the only reason why Nitish dumped the Mahagathbandhan and rejoined the NDA. The BJP needed him as much as he needed the saffron crutches to stay in power as well as stay relevant.

So, notwithstanding Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s much-hyped 'Doors have been closed for Nitish forever' and Nitish’s oft-repeated promise 'Will prefer to be reduced to ashes than joining hands with the BJP again' statements, the political equations had started churning between September 2023 and January 2024. In between, stories were floated by the ruling establishment on how an ambitious Lalu was keen on promoting his son Tejashwi Yadav from deputy CM to CM. (RJD is still today the single largest party in the Assembly).

Changing equations

Three important developments took place in between which changed the tide in the caste-ridden state. First was the caste census in Bihar, followed by a hike in the reservation quota. The third emotive issue was the consecration at the Ram temple.

However, an internal survey by the Bihar BJP showed the highly emotive issue of Ayodhya won’t help it to sail through unless and it was forced to redo the Math. The NDA had reaped rich dividends when it polled around 46% votes during the 2019 Lok Sabha elections in Bihar and bagged 39 out of 40 Lok Sabha seats. (Congress won the other one).

The scenario changed in 2020 Assembly elections when the RJD, Congress and Left joined hands and almost came to power, narrowly losing to NDA. The Mahagathbandhan got a shot in the arm in August 2022 when Nitish jumped the ship and rejoined the fold before forming the government with the support of RJD, Congress, CPI, CPM and the CPI-ML.

“Had this combination stayed together, the vote percentage together of all these constituents (of Mahagathbandhan) would have crossed 40% and reversed the 2019 trend, thereby dealing the BJP a crushing blow. It was this apprehension (of losing badly) that forced the saffron party bigwigs to eat their words and woo back Nitish despite bitter acrimony between the JD(U) and the BJP,” said a ruling party source on conditions of anonymity.

(The writer is Patna-based journalist)