Climate risks loom over April Assembly polls

Climate risks such as rising heat, humidity, thunderstorms and lightning are emerging as a significant concern as West Bengal, Kerala, Assam and Tamil Nadu, along with the Union Territory of Puducherry, head to the polls in April.

With April weather becoming increasingly volatile, there is a growing need to integrate climate risk preparedness into election planning—including heat mitigation measures, contingency plans for storms, and improved safety protocols for frontline workers—according to a briefing note by Climate Trends, a research-based consulting and capacity-building initiative focused on environment and climate issues.

Approximately 17.4 crore electors are expected to vote across 824 Assembly constituencies. Over 2.19 lakh polling stations are being set up, with nearly 25 lakh election officials on duty, according to the Election Commission of India.

The elections fall in the pre-monsoon season (March to May), which also coincides with the heatwave period in northwest and central India. In eastern and northeastern regions, this is the season of Nor’westers, or Kalbaisakhi — short but intense thunderstorms often accompanied by lightning.

Climate data for April over the past five years (2021–2025), compiled by the India Meteorological Department, indicates a clear shift towards hotter, more humid and increasingly erratic weather patterns. April 2022 was among the warmest on record, with temperatures 1.36°C above normal. Recent years have also seen sharp swings in rainfall — from significant deficits to excess precipitation — along with a rise in heavy thunderstorms and intense lightning. These trends translate into heightened risks for voter safety, turnout and election management.

“These evolving climate conditions could directly impact elections in several ways, including reduced voter turnout due to heat and discomfort, heightened health risks for voters and polling personnel, and operational disruptions caused by extreme weather events. We are already at the peak of pre-monsoon activity, which has intensified due to rising temperatures driven by climate change,” said Mahesh Palawat, Vice President (Meteorology and Climate Change), Skymet Weather.

Assam, West Bengal may see rainfall

According to the latest IMD forecast, Assam is likely to witness fairly widespread rainfall and thundershowers in the run-up to polling, while West Bengal may experience scattered rainfall. These weather conditions could include thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds.

Tamil Nadu, Kerala may face intense heat

In contrast, Tamil Nadu and Kerala are expected to experience intensifying heat coupled with high humidity. These conditions may lead to dangerous “wet-bulb” scenarios, significantly increasing heat stress and the risk of heat-related illnesses. Coastal regions, including parts of Tamil Nadu and West Bengal, are likely to record above-normal heatwave days.

SOPs in focus

Election experts note that climate risk preparedness is being incorporated into election planning to some extent. However, they stress the need for comprehensive standard operating procedures, with stronger coordination between election authorities, meteorological agencies, disaster management bodies and local administrations to manage climate-related disruptions.

Expert view

“Most political leaders tend to overlook climate concerns during elections. However, in India, the ECI does factor in these parameters while planning polls,” said O P Rawat. “Polling is scheduled from early morning, around 7 am, to late evening to help voters avoid peak heat. Queue monitoring systems are in place, and home voting options are available for persons with disabilities. These measures are aimed at ensuring that climate conditions do not hinder voter participation,” he added.

Assembly elections in West Bengal, Kerala, Assam, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry will see around 17.4 crore voters across 824 constituencies.

Polling will be conducted at over 2.19 lakh stations with nearly 25 lakh officials, making it one of the largest election exercises amid challenging weather conditions.

The elections fall in the pre-monsoon season (March–May), which overlaps with peak heatwave conditions and rising climate variability.

Data from the India Meteorological Department shows April temperatures have trended above normal in recent years, with 2022 recording a +1.36°C anomaly.

Eastern and northeastern regions are prone to “Nor’westers” — short, intense thunderstorms with lightning — posing risks to polling operations and safety.

Forecasts indicate widespread rain and thunderstorms in Assam and scattered rainfall in West Bengal during the election period.

Southern states like Tamil Nadu and Kerala are expected to face high heat and humidity, increasing the risk of dangerous wet-bulb conditions and heat-related illnesses.

Climate volatility may impact voter turnout, disrupt logistics, and expose polling staff and voters to health risks, according to meteorologists.

Election authorities have introduced mitigation measures such as extended polling hours, queue monitoring systems, and home voting options for vulnerable groups.

Experts stress the need for stronger climate-resilient election planning, including coordination with weather agencies, disaster preparedness, and infrastructure backup systems.