DH Interview | Policy, not cash, key to reviving fertility in South: Prof S Irudaya Rajan

Unlike in the past, parents today invest in a child for 25 years before seeing any return — and often that return leaves the country when children migrate abroad, said Irudaya Rajan.

In an interview with DH’s SNV Sudhir, demography and migration expert Prof S Irudaya Rajan says that clear policy interventions, not financial incentives, are the only credible way to address southern India’s declining fertility rate.

Q) Why is the total fertility rate so low in southern states?

It’s a combination of economics and profound social change. Children have become liabilities rather than assets. Unlike in the past, parents today invest in a child for 25 years before seeing any return — and often that return leaves the country when children migrate abroad. There is simply no economic payoff. Childcare, which was once freely provided through extended family networks, is now a paid service. With grandmothers no longer nearby, women in cities face a lack of support, making a second or third child extremely costly in both time and money.

Q) Could a shrinking working-age population reduce remittances?

Not in the next 20 years. The nature of migration is changing, not declining. Earlier, Kerala sent ten unskilled workers to the Gulf and earned $1,000. Today, it sends three skilled professionals and earns $1,200 — quality has replaced quantity. Meanwhile, unskilled migrants from Uttar Pradesh and Bihar fill the gap. Southern states are moving up the skills ladder, and the remittance pipeline remains strong.

Q) What is the way forward?

Stop looking at people as problems. They are all resources waiting to be engaged. That is the real demographic dividend southern India must now claim.