‘Expect good rains over next two weeks’

Though the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast a normal monsoon this year, so far, the progress of the southwest monsoon – the lifeline of the economy – has been patchy. It came late and stopped after a few days, barely reaching the boundary of southern Karnataka. The cumulative deficiency for the country as a whole stands at 43% till June 19, while for central, southern and eastern India, the shortfall is 54%, 38% and 45% respectively. But IMD Director General KJ Ramesh told DH’s Kalyan Ray that with Cyclone Vayu moving away and no possibility of another cyclone formation in the next two weeks, large parts of India are likely to get copious rains.

We are in the last week of June and there’s hardly been any rain. What’s the problem with monsoon this time?

On April 16, in our forecast, we stated that the June advancement would be sluggish. There was a delay of one week for the monsoon to reach the Kerala coast even though it arrived in the Bay of Bengal in time. Then, Cyclone Vayu formed. It took away the monsoon flow over the Arabian Sea, slowing down its progress along the western coast, though the monsoon flow along the east coast was progressing steadily. In the wake of Vayu, the monsoon circulation has evolved pretty strong and we may expect significant rainfall in the coming days.

What are the expectations now?

Since June 19, rainfall is occurring over the Konkan coast, south interior Karnataka and central Maharashtra. Another system is forming over the Bay of Bengal, which is expected to move inwards by June 27, bringing in good rainfall on the west coast, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, Chhattishgarh, West Bengal and Bihar. A very good spell of rainfall is expected. Even after June 27, good rainfall will continue. The outlook is positive. However, we will have a better idea only this week.

So, Vayu was the culprit?

The initial advancement of monsoon over the mainland was sluggish due to the cyclone, which took away the monsoon air mass and moisture. The east segment of the monsoon is alright, there are rains in the North East and Myanmar.

Are problems to be expected in kharif sowing?

Normally, the monsoon takes one month (June 1-30) to cover the entire country before sowing starts in July. There have to be rains before the sowing. Farmers need at least 70 mm of rain in their fields before they start sowing. That is expected to happen in the fourth week of June. So, if the rain starts now, there may be only a week’s delay in sowing paddy, pulses and oil seeds. In areas like coastal Karnataka and Kerala where there were thunderstorms in May, sowing can start a bit early.

Why does Maharashtra appear to have a big problem this time?

In Maharashtra, it’s a problem that occurs every year. Last year, Maharashtra received good rains in July. If you look at the reservoir reports of last September, you will find all of them were full. Last year, even the Vidarbha region received good rainfall. The state used every bit of the water that was available, leading to good crop yield. The problem of drinking water scarcity is an issue of surface and ground water management. But as far as monsoon is concerned, it wasn’t a scary situation in Maharashtra in 2018.

What are the chances of El Nino impacting the monsoon this year?

The El Nino now oscillates between neutral and weak. It hasn’t even become moderate. The El Nino outlook by IMD as well as the US, Australian and Japanese meteorological agencies is positive. There are signs of a positive IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) on the Arabian Sea side. There are no detrimental factors. The monsoon is expected to be good this time.