Extreme heat tests India's record milk production

New Delhi: During a summer of extreme heat with temperature topping 40 degrees Celsius last year, much like northern India is currently experiencing, dairy farmer Neeraj Bharadwaj watched one of his cows deliver a calf months early.

The newborn was tiny and almost hairless. People said it would not survive, but Bharadwaj bottle fed it milk until it slowly recovered.

Scientists say such premature births are part of a ⁠wider pattern of increasingly intense summers linked to climate change.

Bharadwaj's small farm of six cows near Delhi is typical of millions in India, the world's biggest dairy producer responsible for nearly a quarter of ⁠global supply, where most milk comes from farms with between two and five animals.

The dairy sector accounts for roughly 5 per cent of India's ‌GDP and supports more than 80 million farmers. Rising incomes and population levels ​mean demand for dairy is set to grow - the government estimates it could nearly double by 2050.

But extreme heat means cows eat less, make less milk, struggle to conceive and produce fewer live offspring, experts say, while farmers spend more trying to keep animals cool and fertile.

"Milk production falls by nearly 30 per cent during extreme heat," Bharadwaj said, describing how falling output and rising cooling costs were steadily eating into his earnings.

Record production

For decades, rising milk output was one of India's biggest agricultural success stories, driven by crossbreeding programmes designed to increase productivity and meet growing urban demand.

India's milk ​production reached a record 239 million tonnes in the 2023-24 fiscal ⁠year, up nearly 64 per cent in a decade, according to government data.

But researchers, dairy experts and farmers say rising heat is quietly exposing the vulnerabilities of that model.

Scientists at the National Dairy Research Institute (NDRI) said heat stress reduces feed intake and diverts cows' energy away from milk production and reproduction. High-yield cattle are particularly vulnerable because their metabolisms already generate large amounts of internal heat.

The researchers said heat stress leads to more miscarriages and also reduces the milk's fat content. That hurts farmers who get paid according to ⁠the amount of fat and ‌solids in the milk they sell.

In response, farmers spend more on specialised feed, and more on water and electricity to try to cool their animals.

Bharadwaj spent some 200,000 rupees ($2,100) modifying his cattle sheds with tarpaulin covers and ventilation systems designed to reduce heat stress, while yearly maintenance added another ‌50,000 rupees to repair damage from frequent storms.

Pankaj Navani, a dairy entrepreneur and advisor working on livestock climate adaptation, said larger organised dairy operators in states such as Punjab had adapted more quickly because they increasingly treat dairy as ⁠a commercial business, investing in cooling systems, ventilation and feed management.

But such investment is hard for most dairy farmers operating with only a handful of cattle and limited capital.

"Small backyard dairy operations with two-to-four cows are likely to decline," Navani said.

Reduce heat stress

Abhinav Gaurav, ‌lead advisor for sustainable dairy at Environmental Defense Fund India, a Delhi-based non-profit, said farmers were more likely to invest in climate-resilient practices if they saw ‌clear economic gains, but it was difficult for households already struggling with shrinking margins.

NDRI is working on multiple ways to reduce heat stress, including breeding ‌more heat-tolerant cattle, improving shed design and developing feeding strategies that reduce metabolic stress.

Scientists there recently developed and registered a heat-resilient cattle breed designed to maintain milk productivity under hotter ‌conditions, though they say spreading such interventions across millions of small farms would take time.

Buffaloes contribute nearly half of India's milk production, but scientists say they are particularly sensitive to extreme heat because they rely heavily on water and wallowing to regulate body temperature.

Buffaloes that earlier required wallowing for only a few summer months now need cooling support from March until November, NDRI research shows.

According to government livestock data, crossbred and exotic cattle ⁠account for a large share ⁠of India's milk output because of their higher productivity, while indigenous breeds contribute a smaller share but are increasingly being viewed by some farmers as better adapted to rising temperatures.

Bharadwaj said he chose indigenous breeds such as Tharparkar because they are more resilient in extreme heat and require fewer medical interventions than exotic breeds.

Researchers caution, however, that indigenous breeds alone may not solve India's long-term dairy challenge. The country's dairy system was built around increasing productivity to meet rising demand. And lower-yield cattle may struggle to sustain future consumption without broader improvements in breeding, cooling systems, feed management and animal health.

Repeated heatwaves are also beginning to reshape parts of India's rural insurance market, with companies now offering products tied specifically to livestock heat stress.

IBISA, a Luxembourg-based climate insurance company offering parametric livestock cover that triggers payouts automatically when temperatures cross pre-defined thresholds, says it has insured more than 360,000 cattle across four heat seasons ​in India, paying out more than $360,000 to farmers affected by productivity losses due to extreme heat.

But company officials say insurance can only partially shield farmers from rising heat. "What farmers ​need is not only insurance. Farmers need to adapt to heat and become ​resilient," said IBISA CEO Maria Mateo.

Back on his farm near Delhi, Bharadwaj is tackling another difficult summer. Feed will have to be adjusted and more money spent on supplements and cooling.

For him, climate change has become part of the daily economics ​of producing milk. "We are global leaders in milk production, but we are also among the most vulnerable to climate change," he said. ($1 = 95.4200 Indian rupees)