High-stakes Assembly elections in four States a litmus test for Congress

New Delhi: To say that the Assembly elections in four States and a Union Territory in April will be crucial for the Congress will be an understatement at a time the party appears to see winning prospects, though a tough one, only in Kerala while Assam, where it is in direct contest with the BJP, seems to be an uphill task.

A post on X by general secretary (Organisation) K C Venugopal on March 15, within hours of the election schedule announcement, unwittingly admitted what the Congress could expect from the polls.

For sure, he did say that the party would emerge victorious everywhere but he omitted any specific reference to Assam, West Bengal and Puducherry while predicting a “landslide victory of 100+ seats” in Kerala a “rock-solid” alliance led by DMK’s M K Stalin in Tamil Nadu returning to power. Rahul Gandhi was also quick to talk about Kerala later but there was an eloquent silence on others.

The Congress is putting a high premium on Kerala where it hopes to ride on a 10-year anti-incumbency against the Pinarayi Vijayan-led government to return to power, even as the party lost time to unleash a campaign against the LDF despite a very small window for campaign.

Their fear is that a third consecutive defeat in Kerala could lead to the BJP’s emergence as a second pole, pushing it into an insignificant role like in States such as Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal. A common refrain in Congress circles is that the BJP may tactically vote in certain seats to ensure their defeat.

But the path to power is also complicated by Venugopal, V D Satheesan and Ramesh Chennithala, all Chief Minister hopefuls, who made the candidate selection meetings a war zone to fill the list with their loyalists. The party could breathe easy, with senior MP K Sudhakaran walking back his plans to contest as an independent.

In Assam too where it is out of power for 10 years, the Congress saw trouble with two high-profile exits of former State chief Bhupen Borah and Pradyut Bordoloi, who points fingers at Gaurav Gogoi, the Lok Sabha Deputy Leader who was sent to Assam as party chief to blunt the Himanta Biswa Sarma-led BJP.

Assam will also test top leader Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, who is heading the screening committee, and her presence has not also helped them in tackling organisational troubles. With just days left for campaigning, the party was also slow in sealing the alliance.

Tamil Nadu results will have a bearing on the Congress’ relationship with the DMK where a section demanded power-sharing and sent feelers of flirting with Vijay’s TVK, complicating the alliance chemistry.

The bargain saw the Congress marginally increasing its seats but questions are bound to arise about how long it can piggy-ride on the DMK. Both the parties are eagerly waiting to see how Vijay performs and if the TVK manages substantial vote share, then alliance arithmetic in the State could see a rewrite in the future.

In West Bengal, the Congress has taken an “ekla chalo” (walk alone) strategy by not entering into an understanding with the Left, in order to build the organisation. The Congress will be contesting all 294 seats for the first time since 2006.

Like in Tamil Nadu where it has been playing second fiddle to the Dravidian parties, the Congress wants to carve out a space for itself in West Bengal where it was first pushed to a margin by the CPI(M) and decimated later by the Trinamool Congress.