IMD downgrades South west monsoon outlook to 90%, predicts below-normal rainfall in 3 out of 4 regions

New Delhi: India Meteorological Department on Friday further lowered its “below normal” forecast for the south west monsoon predicting that the country will receive 90% of its average rainfall between June and September.

Below normal rainfall has also been predicted in three out of four regions – north-west, central and southern peninsula – as well as in the monsoon core zone that covers most of the rain-fed agriculture areas in central, eastern and western India.

Only east and north-east India is expected to receive normal rainfall.

In its first long-range forecast issued in April, the IMD said 92% of average rainfall could be expected for the country.

The alarming news of a weak monsoon—the first time in 11 years – was triggered by the threat of an El Nino, an unusual warming of the Pacific Ocean that plays havoc with weather around the world.

The last time met office predicted such a low-rainfall was in 2015, an El Nino year, when the forecast was for 88% of average rain.

Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of meteorology at IMD said there is an 84% probability of the monsoon being “deficient” (less than 90%) or “below normal” (90-95%).

“The south west monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 90% of the long period average with a model error of 4% on either side, indicating that below normal rainfall is most likely over the country,” the IMD says in a statement. India’s long period average rainfall, calculated over 50 years, is 87 cm.

Currently, neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions are transitioning towards El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific region.

The latest climate model forecasts indicate that the El Nino conditions, which adversely impact India most of the time, are likely to develop during the latter half of the monsoon season.

The country’s four trillion dollar economy relies on the monsoon that delivers about 70% of ‌annual rains to replenish crucial water sources as nearly half of farmland lacks irrigation and about half the population earns its livelihood from farming.

For north west India, the forecast is for less than 92% rain whereas for the central and southern peninsula, IMD predicts less than 94% of average rainfall.

The east and the north east will get 94-106% of average rainfall. For the core area that stretches from Gujarat on the west to Jharkhand and Odisha on the east, the forecast is for less than 94% of average.

Mohapatra said two to three additional days of heatwaves are expected in June in Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat and along the east coast. Both day and night temperatures will be above normal in better parts of India in June.