India-Canada trade eyes $50 billion by 2030 as Mark Carney revives CEPA talks

As Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney embarks on an India tour to revive negotiations on the long-pending Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), new analysis by Rubix Data Sciences suggests that the current bilateral trade of $8.7 billion could reach new heights, aiming for a $50 billion trade ambition by 2030.

India–Canada goods trade grew from $6.9 billion in FY2022 to $8.7 billion in FY2025, registering an annual growth rate of about 8 per cent.

However, the analysis noted that this expansion has been accompanied by significant volatility.

In the first nine months of FY2026 (April–December 2025), total goods trade declined by 13 per cent year-on-year, primarily due to a sharp 31 per cent fall in India’s imports from Canada following earlier increases in commodity purchases.

Rubix Data Sciences said this pattern highlights the extent to which bilateral goods trade remains influenced by commodity cycles, particularly fertilisers, pulses, and energy products, rather than sustained structural growth.

At the same time, India’s merchandise export profile to Canada is showing signs of gradual diversification. The share of finished pharmaceutical products has increased in recent years, reinforcing India’s position as a major supplier of generic medicines. Electronics exports, including telecom equipment such as smartphones, have also gained prominence, reflecting India’s expanding manufacturing base and integration into global technology supply chains.

“Canada continues to play a key role in meeting India’s resource requirements. Dried leguminous vegetables account for a significant portion of India’s imports from Canada, underlining Canada’s importance in supporting India’s food supply balance. Imports of diamonds, both cut and uncut, have also increased, supporting India’s gem and jewellery export industry, while fertilisers remain critical for the agricultural sector,” it pointed out.

According to Rubix Data Sciences, the proposed CEPA could help address structural constraints in bilateral goods trade by improving market access, reducing tariff barriers, and strengthening supply chain linkages. This, in turn, could help reduce trade volatility and support more sustained long-term growth.

The analysis noted that the timing of the renewed negotiations is significant, as Canada seeks to diversify export markets beyond traditional partners, while India continues to expand its manufacturing capacity and global trade footprint.