India likely to experience below-normal southwest monsoon at 92%: IMD

New Delhi: India is likely to experience below-normal southwest monsoon – the lifeblood for India’s trillion-dollar economy - almost for the entire country with the season potentially ending at 92 per cent of average rainfall, the India Meteorological Department said here on Monday.

Below-normal seasonal rainfall is most likely in most states, barring Ladakh, Arunachal Pradesh, a few regions across the Northeast and pockets in Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Tamil Nadu, which may experience normal to above-normal rainfall.

Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of Meteorology at IMD said quantitatively, the southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole in 2026 is likely to be 92 per cent of the long-period average of 870 mm with a model error of 5 per cent on either side. This falls under the “below normal” category, according to the weather bureau.

El-Nino conditions, according to Mohapatra, are very likely during the monsoon season, but their effects will be seen after June.

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) refers to an unusual warming of the Pacific and corresponding changes in tropical air pressure, influencing weather patterns across the globe. It is generally associated with poor monsoon rainfall in India, but there are exceptions like 1997 when India experienced normal monsoon rainfall despite it being an El Nino year.

Globally scientists apprehend the emergence of a “super El Nino” in the later part of 2026 and are keeping a close watch. Weather models currently predict the emergence of an El Nino by July, which will gather strength as the year progresses. A clearer picture will come by May end.

Between 1951 and 2023 there were 16 El Niño years. Of these 16 years, there were six weak El Nino years, three moderate and seven strong El Nino years.

The all-India seasonal rainfall was in the deficient (less than 10%) category during two of the six weak El Nino years, in all three moderate El Nino years, and in four of the seven strong years.

“This means in nine of the 16 El Nino years India had deficient monsoon rainfall, suggesting El Nino can be a major deciding factor for the monsoon but not the sole one,” a scientist said.

On a positive note, two other weather parameters suggest a good monsoon. One of them is the Indian Ocean Dipole – a sea surface temperature see-saw between the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal.

Positive IOD conditions are likely to develop towards the end of SW monsoon season which is favourable for monsoon rainfall.

Northern hemisphere snow cover and Eurasian snow cover during January to March 2026 were slightly below normal, which is favourable for south west monsoon seasonal rainfall 2026.

IMD will release its next monsoon forecast by the end of May, providing updates on country-wide forecasts as well as regional forecasts.