India may emerge as the leader of the global south in the near future, said General Anil Chauhan, Chief of the Defence Staff (CDS) and Secretary DMA, at the 14th Air Chief Marshal LM Katre Memorial Lecture organised by the Air Force Association (Karnataka Branch), in association with Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), on Saturday.
He was delivering a keynote address on the inevitable changes in the geopolitical, geo-economic, and geo-technology spaces and their impact on national security, besides touching upon some expected reforms in the country’s defence forces. "We are entering an age that is uncertain and uncharted...it's almost like an Ice Age. (We) will require some kind of transformative change. We are entering an era of great disruption, which will bring turmoil, disorder, upheaval and turbulence," he said.
He predicts that the geopolitical importance of Russia will fall with time while China will become more assertive, contributing to an emergence of a multipolar world order. "There will be no permanent friends, there will be no permanent enemies, and this relationship between friends and enemies will evolve faster than ever before."
The CDS supposes that the Indo-pacific region will become subject to more contestation among countries, and ongoing conflict in and between several countries will contribute to global disorder, he said.
On the geo-economic front, he expects a greater disruption of global supply chains, while countries will try to de-risk their ties with China due to rising tensions with Taiwan, he said, adding that there is a greater push for renewable energy, leading to an increase in electric vehicles and other geo-technological changes.
"These changes are creating uncertainty in the world...nations are preparing themselves for this uncertain future, which is reflected in most of their national security strategies and defence spending," he said.
Declared wars are a thing of the past, he said, noting that the nature of warfare is changing, with a greater adoption of Artificial Intelligence and domains such as electromagnetic and cyberspace to drive information and propaganda warfare.
The hiring of a CDS, besides other appointments in various positions, was the first set of reforms in the country's defence, he said, adding that the second set of major changes will involve the theaterisation of the armed forces.