India's conventional-threat perception centres on Pakistan, China: Report

Singapore: India's conventional-threat perception in the Asia-Pacific will continue to centre on Pakistan and China, says a report released ahead of an international defence dialogue to be held over the weekend in Singapore.

Any potential future "major conventional war" would remain local in nature, with India's surgical strikes having only taken place so far against Pakistan, noted the report published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).

India is preparing its Army for large-scale conventional-combat operations, as a result of long-standing territorial disputes with both of its nuclear-armed neighbours, said the IISS  Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment (APRSA) report dated May 28.

India's border conflicts with China have been more traditional in nature and are unlikely to escalate to the same level of the Indo-Pakistan conflicts. "As such, India will continue to have militarised borders with China and Pakistan," added the 150-page report by the London-based IISS.

Beyond the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), India is unlikely to play an active military role in the wider Asia-Pacific and will likely seek to avoid being drawn into a US-China conflict over Taiwan, for example, the report said.

For India, the pacing challenge is a "hybrid" situation of "no war but also no peace" with China and Pakistan, according to the report.

Indian military doctrine continues to evolve, and its potency improves as the lessons learned from operations against Pakistan and China feed back into its ecosystem, the report said.

India's formative experiences of fighting multiple wars, meanwhile, have shaped its military doctrine, at least as far as it relates to Pakistan, it added.

New Delhi's political will to shift the boundaries of what constitutes an acceptable military response to what it sees as cross-border terrorism has also played a significant role, the report continued.

The evolution of the surgical strikes against Pakistan in 2016, 2019 and 2025 suggests how operational practices could help shape doctrinal development as well. Practice informs perceptions, to some extent.

Assumptions underpinning military doctrines, including whether they are defensive or offensive in nature when it comes to force projection, therefore provide important indicators for what future war fighting might look like. How well-tested those assumptions are further suggests how confident political leaders could be in the military's planning and preparation for conflict.

The report also highlights the focus of major military doctrines of both the United States and China on Taiwan, with the US aiming for Taiwan's sustainable defence and resilience, while China envisions a counter-intervention strategy to keep the US and its allies at bay, the report said.

The dossier examines the other major geopolitical chokepoints in the Indian Ocean region -- including the Malacca Strait -- through the perspective of strategic competition and the interests of island states that are shaping regional security dynamics. With China building its capacity in the region, competition over military presence is increasing, according to the report.

International defence delegates, including ministers, are expected at the annual Shangri-La Dialogue to be held from May 29 to May 31.