A new regional equation in J&K: Is power tilting towards Jammu?

Srinagar: For decades, the political centre of gravity in Jammu and Kashmir lay firmly in Srinagar.

Governments were shaped in the Valley, chief ministers almost invariably came from Kashmir, and the dominant narrative of identity and autonomy flowed from there. Jammu often articulated grievance — of under-representation, of neglect, of imbalance.

More than six years after the abrogation of Article 370 and the reorganisation of the erstwhile state into a Union Territory, that old asymmetry appears to be narrowing.

The first structural shift came in August 2019, when decision-making moved from an elected political executive to a centrally appointed administration led by the Lieutenant Governor. With police and public order vested in Raj Bhavan, the locus of authority fundamentally changed.

The second turning point was the 2022 Delimitation Commission award. Assembly seats in Jammu increased from 37 to 43, while Kashmir’s rose from 46 to 47. Though the Valley retains slight numerical edge, Jammu is now close to parity for the first time since the restoration of electoral politics in 1996, first time after insurgency broke in 1989.

Political analyst Prof. Gul Mohammad Wani says the shift is “structural, not episodic.” According to him, “Delimitation has altered coalition mathematics permanently. Even if Kashmir remains numerically larger, Jammu can now decisively influence government formation.”

The altered arithmetic, he said, has reshaped coalition possibilities and enhanced Jammu’s leverage in any future government formation.

The BJP has described delimitation as a long-overdue correction of “historic under-representation.”

Political analyst often associated with BJP’s nationalist perspectives, Prof. Hari Om has argued that previous delimitation exercises were “Kashmir-centric” and designed to ensure dominance over the Jammu region.

He supported the 2022 Delimitation Commission's efforts to increase seats in Jammu as a move to address this, although he has argued that even with the new seats, the political empowerment of Jammu is not fully achieved.

Kashmir-based leaders disagree. National Conference leader and Chief Minister Omar Abdullah has called the exercise “politically skewed,” while PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti has alleged it was aimed at “re-engineering the region’s political identity.”

Administrative signals reinforce the perception of shifting weight. Major infrastructure investments — including IIT Jammu and IIM Jammu, highway corridors and industrial estates — have been concentrated in the Jammu division. In several recent recruitment drives and competitive examinations, Jammu-based candidates have secured a larger share of selections.

Prof Wani, however, cautions against reading too much into episodic recruitment data. “Competitive exams reflect preparation ecosystems. Jammu has invested heavily in coaching infrastructure in recent years. That naturally affects outcomes,” he said, adding that “transparency in evaluation remains essential to prevent mistrust.”

It is against this backdrop that two recent controversies have reignited debate over regional balance.

In January 2026, the National Medical Commission revoked approval for 50 MBBS seats for the 2025–26 session at Shri Mata Vaishno Devi Institute of Medical Excellence (SMVDIME), citing infrastructure and faculty deficiencies.

The college, backed by the Shri Mata Vaishno Devi Shrine Board, had faced protests after 46 of its 50 first-batch students were Muslims. Hindu groups demanded “local preference,” while authorities maintained admissions were strictly merit-based under NEET norms and religion cannot be a criterion.

Similarly, the 2025–26 JKPSC Civil Judge recruitment for 42 posts triggered controversy after only 13 of 124 candidates shortlisted for viva-voce were from Kashmir division. While the Commission follows a merit-based system without regional quotas, Omar Abdullah said the trend “raises legitimate questions about regional balance,” and Mehbooba Mufti called for greater transparency.

Security patterns also show divergence. Local militant recruitment in the Valley has declined sharply since 2020, while hilly districts of Jammu division have witnessed intermittent militant activity, drawing sustained administrative and security focus.

For decades, Jammu spoke of imbalance. Today, the debate is more layered. The Valley questions representation in services and institutions even as Jammu’s electoral and administrative footprint expands.

Whether this represents long-awaited correction or the emergence of a new regional contest will likely define the next phase of politics in the Union Territory.