After the boom, the melt: How warmer winters are reshaping Kashmir’s tourism economy

Srinagar: In January 2025, Abdul Majeed inaugurated 7-M Cottage, his newly built hotel in Tangmarg — the gateway town to Gulmarg in north Kashmir. He had taken a substantial bank loan, betting on Kashmir’s tourism boom and Gulmarg’s standing as India’s premier ski destination.

The timing seemed right. Tourist arrivals had surged in recent years. Infrastructure had improved. Hospitality investments were rising steadily across north Kashmir. Tangmarg, just downhill from the ski slopes, was expanding with new hotels and guesthouses catering to winter visitors.

Then the snow faltered

The 2025 winter saw inconsistent snowfall, with warm spells interrupting peak ski weeks. Advance bookings turned into last-minute confirmations dependent on weather forecasts. The winter of 2026 has been no better, recording below-normal snowfall again and reinforcing fears that the shift is not temporary.

“Earlier, winter meant fixed business,” Majeed says. “Now everything depends on whether it snows.”

For decades, Gulmarg’s economy ran on predictability. Snow would settle by mid December, deepen through January and last into March. Hotels priced rooms around a reliable 70–90 day ski season. Tangmarg thrived as the base for budget travellers and overflow accommodation.

That certainty is weakening

Tourism operators say the ski window has narrowed in recent years. Snow often arrives late and melts early. Even when heavy snowfall occurs, intermittent warmer days disrupt conditions, shortening stays and affecting ski operations. The financial impact is disproportionate. Even a two-week reduction in peak skiing days alters revenue projections for businesses structured around seasonal spikes.

“We built assuming at least two solid winter months,” says a Gulmarg guesthouse owner. “Now even January feels unpredictable.”

Construction in the Gulmarg belt is capital-intensive. Transporting materials, winter-proofing buildings and installing heating systems push up costs. Loans are calculated on occupancy assumptions heavily tied to winter demand. When snowfall is erratic, revenue fluctuates — but repayments remain fixed.

The sector also remains sensitive to security shocks. The terror attack on tourists in Pahalgam on April 24, 2025 rattled tourist sentiment across the Valley. Although Gulmarg recovered partially compared to other destinations in a few months time and security was tightened swiftly, cancellations followed in its aftermath. “Whenever something happens anywhere in Kashmir, bookings slow everywhere,” the guesthouse owner says. “Tourists don’t see geography. They see headlines.”

The ripple effects extend beyond hoteliers. Taxi drivers, pony operators and ski instructors depend disproportionately on winter earnings. Shops selling snow gear operate within a narrow seasonal window. A shortened season compresses incomes across the chain.

Environmental observers link the snowfall variability to broader Himalayan warming trends. Winters are becoming less predictable. Individual storms still draw visitors, but sustained snow cover — the backbone of ski tourism — appears less assured.

Over the years the government has projected tourism as a pillar of economic stability in Kashmir. Gulmarg has been central to that narrative. Yet climate variability and seasonal risk rarely feature in investment projections.

For Abdul Majeed, the concern is immediate. Staff salaries, electricity bills and monthly instalments arrive on time. Snow does not.

On days when fresh snowfall blankets the slopes, optimism returns. But after two consecutive weak winters, the uncertainty feels structural rather than seasonal — a warning that Kashmir’s celebrated snow economy may no longer be as dependable as it once seemed.