Low rainfall, soaring temperatures deepen climate and water treaty concerns in Jammu and Kashmir

National climate analyst Prof. Anjal Prakash said that 'precipitation deficits coupled with rising temperatures are indicators of a changing climate regime.'

Srinagar: Jammu and Kashmir is experiencing a pronounced precipitation deficit, sharply above-normal winter temperatures and significantly reduced snowfall, trends scientists and officials say are symptomatic of ongoing climate change in the western Himalayas.

Latest data from the India Meteorological Department’s Meteorological Centre Srinagar show that the region has recorded precipitation shortfalls exceeding 50 per cent this winter, with the Valley’s plains virtually snow-free for extended periods and cumulative deficits comparable to the last two consecutive dry seasons, according to regional meteorological data and local analysis

The winter’s harshest 40-day period locally known as “Chillai Kalan,”  typically brings sustained snowfall to recharge aquifers and maintain river flows. This season, however, much of the plains remained bare with precipitation running 85 per cent below normal from November through mid-February, and some areas reporting near-total rainfall and snow deficits.

At the same time, unusually warm days have become commonplace. On Thursday, Srinagar recorded 20.1 °C, nearly 10 °C above long-term averages, while Jammu hit 27 °C, showing a pattern of warmer winters. These elevated temperatures not only limit snowfall but also accelerate glacial melt — temporarily boosting streamflow before ultimately reducing long-term water availability.

Experts warn that these shifts are already affecting Kashmir’s water cycle. “The mountains from which the springs emerge and flow down to the habitations are hollow,” said climate scientist Prof. Shakeel Ahmad Romshoo, underscoring how reduced snow cover and rising temperatures directly weaken streamflow and groundwater recharge.

National climate analyst Prof. Anjal Prakash added that “precipitation deficits coupled with rising temperatures are indicators of a changing climate regime,” pointing to broader Himalayan trends of weakened western disturbances and altered precipitation patterns.

For the water-rich valleys that feed major rivers like the Jhelum and Chenab — critical both within Jammu & Kashmir and downstream under the Indus Waters Treaty — the implications are profound. Weaker snowfall and accelerated glacier retreat threaten summer water shortages, reduce hydroelectric potential and may compound future disputes over river flows between India and Pakistan.

Hydrologists warn that unless winter precipitation stabilises and water conservation strategies are strengthened, Kashmir’s transition from a natural watershed to a water-stressed region could accelerate, imperiling agriculture, drinking water supplies and ecosystem resilience across the greater Indus basin.