Covid peak could strain bed availability in Bengaluru

Hospitalisations of Covid-19 cases are up in Bengaluru, which is accounting for an average of 80% of all new infections as the third wave gathers steam in the state.

Two groups — the unvaccinated and senior citizens — could exacerbate the problem and lead to bed shortages if the projected peak daily caseload of 40,000 to 1.2 lakh becomes a reality by February.

While daily admissions in government and private hospitals rose from 21 to 26 in the last two weeks of December, the numbers surged from 33 to 80 per day over the last 10 days, as per the data from the Bruhat Bengaluru Mahanagara Palike (BBMP).

Munish Moudgil, Director of the State Covid-19 War Room, said an analysis of 34,904 Covid-19 cases between December 1 and January 7 found that unvaccinated individuals comprised a large chunk of the infections and occupied a majority of ICU beds.

“Unvaccinated constitute 10 times (the number of) Covid-19 patients and 30 times more in ICU than expected,” he said.

As per data, first dose coverage had reached 98.84% as of Saturday evening, which means that 1.16% of a projected 49,793,996 people have not yet received a single dose.

With infections rising, the government scaled up the number of available beds on Sunday night. As of 10.30 pm, the city reported 4,491 government quota beds, up from 1,979 beds on Sunday morning.

The new numbers include 1,720 HDU, 346 ICU and 429 ICU ventilator beds, of which 6% were occupied. Some 1,675 beds are government quota beds in private hospitals.

While medical professionals have noted panic admissions taking place, experts also expressed concern about the rising occupancy of ICU and ICU-ventilator beds. Of 168 hospital admissions to government hospitals in the last seven days, for example, 22 were for ICU and 9 were for ICU-Ventilator beds.

Currently, about 0.47% of new cases require ICU care, as per government data on triaging analysed by DH. There is concern that these rates will rise amid ongoing influx of unvaccinated patients and senior citizens who continue to be vulnerable to the disease.

Senior citizens

Furthermore, since the start of the surge on December 29, the test positivity rate of people aged 60 and above has been 9.32%. In comparison, people aged 20 to 49 have a test positivity rate of 5.41%.

Noted geriatrician Dr Anoop Amarnath of Manipal Hospital noted that antibodies of senior citizens had waned since their inoculations early last year.

The vulnerabilities of the unvaccinated and senior citizens could lead to bed shortages in the coming days as the peak approaches.

There will be a rapid inundation of critical care beds if oxygen consumption requirements go up, said Dr Vishal Rao of HCG Cancer Hospital and technical advisor to the state.

“Omicron primarily causes infections in the upper respiratory tract and so severity is lower. However, the experience of a hospital in South Africa is illustrative,” Dr Rao said.

“Here, 4% of new admissions were to oxygenated beds and 1% to ICU beds. If we reach the stage where we are recording 50,000 cases in the state per day, this would lead to about 2,000 cases per day requiring an oxygen bed, which could badly strain the system,” he said.

The state is said to have a total of 60,000 oxygen beds (including 50,629 in government centres) and between 4,000 to 6,000 ICU/V beds (including 3,877 ICU-V government beds).