‘BJP-JD(S) led in 142 Assembly seats’

Bengaluru: If an Assembly election is held and voters in Karnataka exercise their franchise the way they did during the Lok Sabha polls, then the BJP and JD(S) together would win 142 seats, an overturn of the huge mandate the Congress got in the state last year.

This is according to Assembly-wise leads, which DH has analysed. 

Karnataka has a long history of voting differently in the Assembly and Lok Sabha elections. Last year, Congress romped home by winning 135 Assembly seats. During the Lok Sabha polls this time, however, voters gave BJP 17 out of the 28 seats, its ally JD(S) two and Congress nine. 

Despite winning nine seats, up from just one in 2019, Congress is sulking as it was confident of winning 14-15 seats. 

Contributing to the Congress’ heartburn is that 18 ministers failed to help the party gain a lead in their own Assembly constituencies. For example, Transport Minister Ramalinga Reddy’s BTM Layout gave a lead of over 9,000 votes to BJP’s Tejasvi Surya in Bangalore South. Sowmya Reddy, the minister’s daughter, was the Congress candidate. Similarly, Women & Child Development Minister Laxmi Hebbalkar’s Belgaum Rural segment saw the BJP scoring of lead of 50,000 votes despite her son Mrinal being the Congress candidate. 

Going by numbers, the BJP-JD(S) alliance worked as both parties managed to give each other their votes, something Congress hoped would not happen. In the Tumkur and Mandya Lok Sabha segments, the Congress did not score a lead in any Assembly segment.

Similarly, Congress got no lead in Assemblies under Uttara Kannada, Udupi-Chikmagalur & Shimoga LS segments. 

It was only in Chamarajanagar Lok Sabha seat that Congress got a lead in all Assembly segments. It was a near-sweep for it in Bidar, Raichur and Bellary. 

Surprisingly, former BJP chief minister Basavaraj Bommai’s Shiggaon and firebrand Hindutva MLA Basanagouda Patil Yatnal’s Bijapur city gave Congress a lead, according to data. 

Data points to how gaining a substantial lead in one Assembly segment can turn an entire election. In Bangalore Central, BJP’s P C Mohan won a fourth term, helped by a lead of 1.14 lakh votes in Mahadevapura. “The number of voters in Mahadevapura is equal to 3 Assemblies. And, if it wasn’t for the lead I got in Rajajinagar and other places, Mahadevapura alone wouldn’t have sufficed. So, everything has to balance,” Mohan said. 

The CM said BJP would have ended up with single digit if it wasn’t for the party “politicising” Neha Hiremath's murder in Hubballi. “The Congress’ vote share rose 13 percentage points from 2019,” he said.