CM-designate D K Shivakumar may have to navigate fiscal, political minefield

Chief Minister-designate D K Shivakumar takes charge with less than two years to go for the 2028 Assembly polls, and experts say the political and fiscal minefield ahead will test both his reputation as a troubleshooter and his political messaging.

“Anytime you take over as the CM midstream, you need to deal with power structures and the changes in power structures,” notes political analyst Dr Sandeep Shastri, adding that the immediate test will be Cabinet formation.

“With only 34 berths, ministerial aspirations and demands for political accommodation will be a challenge. With Siddaramaiah hoping to continue as MLA and remain active in state politics, there is the possibility of a rival power centre,” said Shastri.

Dinesh Aminmattu, former media advisor to Chief Minister, said Siddaramaiah’s transition into his next role will be crucial to help the new Congress government shift gears with minimal friction. “A total overhaul of the Cabinet makes sense only in peacetime, not wartime. He should retain senior leaders like Parameshwara, Krishna Byre Gowda and Zameer in the Cabinet,” Amin said, adding that an image makeover projecting Shivakumar as “more amicable” would build credibility.

“Unlike Siddaramaiah, who has an empathetic, pro-poor image, Shivakumar’s tough exterior and perception as pro-industry may not inspire enough public trust to push even well-meaning projects without conscious effort,” Amin said.

Shivakumar’s soft Hindutva positioning, guarded silence on issues like the hijab ban and opposition to the caste survey have also earned him distrust among sections of the Ahinda bloc, especially Muslims and Dalits.

“With Siddaramaiah’s exit, the Kuruba community could shift towards NDA. Rising Muslim assertion and fragmentation among Dalit and OBC communities through BJP’s social engineering can dent Congress’s core vote. Only a leader matching Siddaramaiah’s stature and appeal among Ahinda can help Congress electorally,” Amin reasoned.

A Vokkaliga strongman, Shivakumar is still not the undisputed leader of his community. “His brother DK Suresh losing Bengaluru Rural proves Vokkaligas are still with the Deve Gowda family,” Amin argued.

Shastri, however, sees an upside. “Shivakumar’s political experience and his role as troubleshooter should stand him in good stead. His politics of consensus, unlike Siddaramaiah’s confrontational approach with the Modi government, could recalibrate Karnataka’s engagement with the Centre. He has a better understanding of the Delhi durbar and the willingness to negotiate.”

The fiscal challenge is equally pressing. Public finance expert Madhusudhan Rao said Shivakumar must balance financial prudence with political compulsions as guarantee schemes are increasingly seen as a burden.

“He should stick to the guarantees along with an inflationary budget. By completing irrigation projects quickly and negotiating cheaper energy contracts, Shivakumar can demonstrate administrative efficiency while containing costs,” Rao said.

Time is another constraint. Shivakumar is likely to get only one full-fledged State Budget before the 2028 polls. “It is a narrow window to translate decisions into visible outcomes. He should fast-track projects like Peripheral Ring Road 2 and Bidadi township to prove credibility,” Rao added.