Karnataka: BJP to reset caste calculations as power shifts in Soudha

Looks to exploit Siddaramaiah's exit by wooing OBCs, especially Kurubas.

New Delhi: As Vokkaliga strongman Shivakumar takes over as chief minister, the BJP is closely watching political shifts in the state with the next Assembly elections due in 2028.

The BJP in Karnataka has long relied heavily on the Lingayat community, along with support from sections of Dalits and other groups. 

Veteran Lingayat leaders like B S Yediyurappa and Jagadish Shettar were once the faces of the party in the state.

With their popularity declining, the party appointed Yediyurappa’s son, B Y Vijayendra, as state president. The move has not been smooth, triggering internal divisions and infighting, as several senior leaders have been reluctant to fully back the younger leader. 

In a fresh attempt to strengthen the state unit, BJP central observer and national joint general secretary (organisation) Shivprakash recently visited Karnataka. He held extensive meetings with senior leaders to assess the situation regarding Vijayendra and possible alternatives.

To expand its footprint in the influential Vokkaliga-dominated regions of southern Karnataka, the BJP forged an alliance with JD(S) and accommodated JD(S) leader H D Kumaraswamy in the Union Cabinet, though the party has just two Lok Sabha seats.

Currently, the BJP is leveraging Kumaraswamy’s influence to counter Shivakumar, another key Vokkaliga face.

With Congress appointing a Vokkaliga leader as CM, BJP strategists believe the party must recalibrate its approach. 

Sources indicate a greater focus on other backward classes (OBCs), Lingayats, and Dalits, who are expected to play a decisive role in the coming elections.

A prime target is the Kuruba community, a politically significant OBC group comprising 7-8 per cent of the state’s population.

Siddaramaiah is widely seen as the undisputed leader of Kurubas. His reported unhappiness over the manner of his removal — without allowing him proper consultation with loyalists — has created an opportunity for BJP to woo disaffected voters from the community.

The BJP has struggled to find a strong Kuruba face after the exit of former state president K S Eshwarappa. 

The party is eyeing younger leaders from the community, with Eshwarappa’s son reportedly showing interest in aligning with BJP.

The current state BJP setup remains upper-caste heavy: Vijayendra (Lingayat) as state president and R Ashoka (Vokkaliga) as leader of Opposition in the Assembly.

Though Dalit leader Chalavadi Narayanaswamy is Leader of Opposition in the Legislative Council, OBC representation in key decision-making bodies is limited.

The findings of Karnataka’s socio-economic caste survey, which peg OBC communities at nearly 70% of the state’s population, have added urgency to BJP’s need to broaden social base.

Siddaramaiah’s departure creates a notable vacuum in the Ahinda (Minorities, Backward Classes, and Dalits) social coalition that he championed.