Stage set for May potboiler as Congress camps sharpen knives

The May 4 byelection results could escalate the power tussle between Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and Deputy Chief Minister D K Shivakumar, as the government completes three years on May 20 and both camps seek clarity on the leadership issue.

Even as senior legislators and ministerial aspirants travelled to Delhi earlier this week to lobby for a Cabinet reshuffle, all eyes are on Shivakumar, who is expected to make a final push for the chief minister’s post.

Any further delay leaves him with little time to make an impact, his supporters fear, and risks erosion of his support base.

A later transition would also mean he inherits anti-incumbency and shoulders the burden of the 2028 elections, at a time when the party’s prospects already appear uncertain.

“The party will see a spur of activities post May 4. By June 1, both camps hope to get clarity on the leadership issue. The high command will make its intent clear. Either way, a Cabinet reshuffle is on cards — the incumbent seeks one to counter anti-incumbency or a new CM picks his own Cabinet,” a senior leader said.

The leadership question coincides with a deepening internal crisis following the April 9 Davangere south byelection, marked by disciplinary action, public dissent and backlash from key communities.

MLC Abdul Jabbar was suspended and MLC Naseer Ahmed removed as political secretary to the chief minister over ‘anti-party activities’ linked to ‘sabotage’ during the bypoll.

Housing Minister Zameer Ahmed Khan also faced similar allegations, which he denied.

Chief whip in the Council Saleem Ahmed and MLA Rizwan Arshad, who flagged sabotage, maintained that the Muslim community ultimately backed the Congress candidate.

At the centre of the row is the party’s decision not to field a Muslim candidate in Davangere south despite the community’s sizeable voter base there.

The Congress instead chose Samarth Mallikarjun, grandson of Shamanur Shivashankarappa, triggering resentment among local minority community leaders. 

Zameer said he was campaigning in Kerala. “I didn’t go on a holiday. I was a star campaigner there,” he said, acknowledging initial discontent among Muslim voters.

The bypoll has also exposed factional fault lines between the Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar camps, with disciplinary action seen by some as part of the power play.

The perception that leaders close to the CM are being singled out has intensified tensions.

Shivakumar, also the KPCC president, rejected the charge and said action was taken on directions from the party high command.

Within Siddaramaiah’s camp, his silence has drawn criticism. Senior leader K N Rajanna described the chief minister as “helpless” and questioned why similar standards were not applied across factions. 

Public Works Minister Satish Jarkiholi called for “damage control”, warning of a perception that the party was acting against Dalits and minorities.

“We must take them back. Dalits and minorities are our voters,” he said, referring to demands for reinstating Jabbar.

Leaders like G Parameshwara, M B Patil and Eshwar Khandre are now seen as being outside both camps while nurturing chief ministerial ambitions.

For Jarkiholi, a leader from the ST community, the status quo delays his prospects of becoming state Congress chief even as he positions himself as a potential Ahinda face after Siddaramaiah.

A transition to Shivakumar during this term could also limit the number of contenders for the top post ahead of 2028.

The delay in the completion of the caste survey and internal reservation has added to discontent among Dalits.

Removal of ST ministers

The removal of ST Welfare Minister B Nagendra over alleged corruption in the Valmiki corporation, followed by the exit of Cooperation Minister K N Rajanna after he blamed the ‘government’s complacency’ for vote theft, has not gone down well with the party’s core base.

Wary of a backlash, no action was taken when the Opposition mounted corruption allegations against Excise Minister
R B Timmapur earlier this year.

Insiders say some leaders are exploring options with BJP and JD(S), ahead of the 2028 elections.

For now, the high command — particularly Rahul Gandhi — is unlikely to remove an Ahinda chief minister, which could safeguard Siddaramaiah’s position.

However, Shivakumar’s camp maintains that after Siddaramaiah has crossed key political and governance milestones, there is little justification for further delay in their leader’s anointment as chief minister.

The Congress leadership now faces the twin challenge of containing factional tensions and addressing discontent within its core support base, even as the byelection verdict looms.