<p>Bengaluru: What is the population of Karnataka in 2025? While the Election Commission has estimated it to be 7.86 crore, the National Commission on Population has projected it to be 6.85 crore – one crore fewer. </p>.<p>According to the 2011 census, the population of Karnataka was 6.10 crore. Since this data is 14 years old, major policy decisions, such as providing internal reservation to Scheduled Castes (SCs) and conducting a fresh Social and Educational Survey (caste census) will need accurate population estimates.</p>.From control to sustainability: The new population imperative.<p>The one-person commission headed by retired judge Nagamohan Das, which is overseeing the survey to provide internal reservation for SCs, has used the 6.85 crore estimate as projected by the Technical Group on Projected Populations (TGPP), conducted by the National Commission of Population.</p>.<p>The Backward Classes Commission, which will conduct the caste census, is yet to decide on which estimate to rely on. "The members reported today and we had a meeting. We will certainly have this examined by persons who can authoritatively speak on this and take a decision," chairman of the Backward Classes Commission Madhusudan Naik said. </p>.'Narrative management': Congress questions Centre's intention on caste census .<p>These projections use the Cohort Component Method for projection, which determines population growth based on fertility, mortality and migration rates. </p>.<p>As a direct result of decreasing Total Fertility Rate (total number of children a woman can give birth to in her lifetime) in the state, the population growth rate in Karnataka has declined from 1% from 2011-15 to 0.6% in 2021-25, as per projections.</p>.<p>According to sources in the Election Commission, they first ascertain the decadal growth rate based on the growth rate from Assembly constituencies. They then use this figure to calculate the projected population by using geometric progression. When probable migration figures are added to this, the estimate of 7.86 crore was obtained, sources say. </p>.<p>Interestingly, the growth rate for the population above 18 years of age is approximately the same in both estimates. </p>.Fewer kids? Voter-population ratio high in many K'taka districts.<p><strong>Why the difference?</strong></p>.<p>"The difference between the two estimates is a result of the election commission using a constant growth rate in its calculation. Though the growth rates are similar in both estimates for the voting age group (18+), this doesn't factor in the decreasing fertility rate, which affects the 0-17 age group the most. As a result, the growth rate in the 0-17 age group decreases significantly," demographer Prof Purushottam M Kulkarni told DH.</p>.<p>As the TGPP estimate considers initial age distribution, fertility and mortality, are expected to be more accurate, Prof Kulkarni added. </p>.<p><strong>Census only solution</strong></p>.<p>All sources unanimously agreed that the only solution to these confusions is the decadal census. The Union government recently announced that March 1, 2027 will be the reference date for door-to-door survey.</p>
<p>Bengaluru: What is the population of Karnataka in 2025? While the Election Commission has estimated it to be 7.86 crore, the National Commission on Population has projected it to be 6.85 crore – one crore fewer. </p>.<p>According to the 2011 census, the population of Karnataka was 6.10 crore. Since this data is 14 years old, major policy decisions, such as providing internal reservation to Scheduled Castes (SCs) and conducting a fresh Social and Educational Survey (caste census) will need accurate population estimates.</p>.From control to sustainability: The new population imperative.<p>The one-person commission headed by retired judge Nagamohan Das, which is overseeing the survey to provide internal reservation for SCs, has used the 6.85 crore estimate as projected by the Technical Group on Projected Populations (TGPP), conducted by the National Commission of Population.</p>.<p>The Backward Classes Commission, which will conduct the caste census, is yet to decide on which estimate to rely on. "The members reported today and we had a meeting. We will certainly have this examined by persons who can authoritatively speak on this and take a decision," chairman of the Backward Classes Commission Madhusudan Naik said. </p>.'Narrative management': Congress questions Centre's intention on caste census .<p>These projections use the Cohort Component Method for projection, which determines population growth based on fertility, mortality and migration rates. </p>.<p>As a direct result of decreasing Total Fertility Rate (total number of children a woman can give birth to in her lifetime) in the state, the population growth rate in Karnataka has declined from 1% from 2011-15 to 0.6% in 2021-25, as per projections.</p>.<p>According to sources in the Election Commission, they first ascertain the decadal growth rate based on the growth rate from Assembly constituencies. They then use this figure to calculate the projected population by using geometric progression. When probable migration figures are added to this, the estimate of 7.86 crore was obtained, sources say. </p>.<p>Interestingly, the growth rate for the population above 18 years of age is approximately the same in both estimates. </p>.Fewer kids? Voter-population ratio high in many K'taka districts.<p><strong>Why the difference?</strong></p>.<p>"The difference between the two estimates is a result of the election commission using a constant growth rate in its calculation. Though the growth rates are similar in both estimates for the voting age group (18+), this doesn't factor in the decreasing fertility rate, which affects the 0-17 age group the most. As a result, the growth rate in the 0-17 age group decreases significantly," demographer Prof Purushottam M Kulkarni told DH.</p>.<p>As the TGPP estimate considers initial age distribution, fertility and mortality, are expected to be more accurate, Prof Kulkarni added. </p>.<p><strong>Census only solution</strong></p>.<p>All sources unanimously agreed that the only solution to these confusions is the decadal census. The Union government recently announced that March 1, 2027 will be the reference date for door-to-door survey.</p>