A race within a race: Congress’ shadow fight for CM chair intensifies in poll-bound Kerala

Alappuzha-native Reefa Mary was taken aback when AICC general secretary (organisation) and local MP K C Venugopal entered the kitchen of her small house the other day and tasted the tapioca she had been cooking. Venugopal was on a door-to-door visit in the coastal area to listen to people's concerns over inflation in Kerala during the last 10 years of the Left Democratic Front (LDF)’s rule.

Despite being widely trolled online, Venugopal was seen the next day pillion-riding with a gig worker in the state’s capital, Thiruvananthapuram. He also surprised industrialists with an interaction he initiated as the chairman of the Parliamentary Public Accounts Committee.

Recently, Venugopal was also seen sitting on the bare ground and eating with women workers as he heard their concerns over the MGNREGA being replaced with the VB-G RAM G Act. "Such interactions… are quite usual ahead of preparing election manifestos," he told his critics.

The sentiment may elicit respect, but rumour mills have a different take: Venugopal is looking to project himself as the Congress’ chief-ministerial candidate, especially since the party hopes to return to power after a decade in Kerala.

Two senior Congress leaders — Opposition leader V D Satheesan and his predecessor Ramesh Chennithala — could be obviously aggrieved over Venugopal's proactive roles in Kerala, as they are the other CM probables. That list was pretty long, but others — like Shashi Tharoor, former Kerala PCC president K Sudhakaran, and K Karunakaran's son K Muraleedharan — seem to have given up hope.

The push

As Opposition leaders are often considered the next CM by default, Satheesan is already trying to secure his position. He keeps saying that he is bound to lead the party to victory, and will exile to the forest if he can't.

Satheesan has gained popularity with his role in the recent local-body elections, Assembly by-polls, and the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, in which the Congress witnessed impressive victories.

A five-time MLA from Paravur in his home district Kochi, Satheesan came to the limelight with his bold stands on a host of social and environmental issues, even deviating from the official party line. He became the Opposition leader in 2021, replacing Chennithala in the shake-up following the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF)’s second consecutive Assembly poll defeat.

Formerly a practising lawyer, Satheesan often displays articulation and oratory skills in heated political debates in the Assembly and other forums. He has the support of several young leaders, who want a generational change in the party. His recent no-compromise stand against sexual-assault accused young MLA Rahul Mamkootathil — his loyal supporter — boosted Satheesan's graph further.

Satheesan (61) is younger than Venugopal (63) and Chennithala (69). They could highlight his lack of experience as a minister as a drawback.

The considerations

Chennithala, who has been attempting a comeback following the 2021 setback, got a fillip at the right time when he was made the chairman of the Congress campaign committee for the Kerala Assembly polls. It gives him better grounds to take credit for the party's probable victory.

Being the eldest of the three, Chennithala obviously has a longer political career. At 28, he became the youngest minister in Kerala in the 1986 K Karunakaran-led government. He was also the home minister from 2014 to 2016 in the Oommen Chandy government.

A four-time MP, five-time MLA, and former Kerala PCC president, he has held various positions in the AICC, and is also a permanent invitee to the Congress Working Committee. He also enjoys a good rapport with senior AICC leaders, including the Nehru clan.

Venugopal, meanwhile, has a bright political career to boast of. He had served as a Union minister of state and as a Cabinet minister in Kerala. He was elected to the Kerala Assembly and the Lok Sabha thrice each, served as a Rajya Sabha member, and held key responsibilities in the party.

Other factors

Sensing this power struggle in Kerala, the AICC leadership is repeatedly reminding its Kerala-level counterpart that the priority is to win the election, and that the elected members would decide the eventual leader, with the high command's nod. This gives Venugopal an edge: He is close to former Congress chief Rahul Gandhi, who is believed to be the last word in the party these days.

The objections being raised from within the party against sitting MPs contesting Assembly polls appear targeted at hobbling Venugopal. However, he can enter the Kerala Assembly via the bypoll route, which would be a cakewalk.

Satheesan seems to be focusing more on building his mass support through bold stands and oratory skills. He may even take a leaf out of CPM leader V S Achuthanandan's book on countering internecine sidelining attempts with mass support.

Amid all this, the rumour mills are also churning out fresh narratives, like the CM seat-sharing pact.

As the leadership race continues as an open secret, one concern weighs heavily in the Congress: whether it will play spoilsport, as it did in 2021.