Southwest Monsoon may hit Kerala coast on May 26: IMD

New Delhi: An early date with the monsoon may be in the offing with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday announcing that Kerala coast is likely to see the arrival of southwest monsoon on May 26 – five days ahead of schedule.

“This year, the south west monsoon is likely to set in over Kerala on May 26 with a model error of plus or minus four days,” the weather agency said in its forecast.

The advance of the south west monsoon over Indian mainland is marked by its onset over Kerala and is a key indicator characterising the transition from the hot and dry season to the rainy season. The onset date forecast is made on the basis of six regional and local weather parameters.

In the last 21 years, IMD’s onset forecast was mostly accurate barring in 2015 when the monsoon reached Kerala on June 5 as against the forecast date of May 30.

The monsoon has arrived in the Andaman sea earlier this week and conditions are favourable for its further advance to south Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea and Andaman & Nicobar Islands in the next 24 hours.

Last year, the onset happened three days ahead of the forecast date after which the rain clouds galloped across nearly half of the country with copious precipitation even before the monsoon season officially starts on June 1. The 2025 monsoon season ended with “above-normal” rainfall.

But in its first forecast in April, the weather bureau predicted India would receive a “below normal” rainfall in 2026 with 92% of average precipitation. It also predicted emergence of El Nino in the later half of the monsoon season.

Earlier this week, IMD launched a new AI-based hyper-local monsoon forecast system using which rain prediction will be made for 3,000 plus blocks in 16 states this year.