Challenging times beckon Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar

The depleted strength of Maha Vikas Aghadi combined with the threat of Operation Lotus and Operation Tiger is a matter of concern for Thackeray and Pawar.

Mumbai: The verdict in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Kerala sent strong ripples through Maharashtra’s two top regional parties—the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) and the Sharad Pawar-headed NCP (SP). 

The depleted strength of the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) combined with the threat of Operation Lotus and Operation Tiger is a matter of concern for Thackeray and Pawar. 

Besides, it must be noted that there is no Leader of Opposition in the Legislative Assembly for about a year-and-a-half, and no Leader of Opposition in the Legislative Council for nearly a year. 

In Maharashtra, the MVA, which is part of the Congress-led I.N.D.I.A. opposition bloc, seems to be in a difficult situation. 

On the other hand, the rift between the three allies - Congress, SS (UBT) and NCP (SP) - has surfaced publicly on several occasions.

The splits within the Shiv Sena and NCP in June-July 2022 and June-July 2023, respectively, coupled with an assertive expansion by the BJP, have altered the balance of power. 

Unlike in states where regional parties have consolidated their bases, the Thackeray and Pawar-led formations are navigating a fragmented political terrain where organisational control, voter loyalty and alliance coherence remain under strain.

Meanwhile, the BJP, backed by its allies in the ruling coalition, has continued its assertive organisational expansion, aggressively targeting urban centres, co-operative institutions and local self-government bodies. This has further squeezed the political space available to regional parties.

For Thackeray, the challenge is two-fold: retaining the emotional connect of the original Shiv Sena voter base while rebuilding an organisational structure damaged by defections. Deputy Chief Minister and Shiv Sena chief leader Eknath Shinde will leave no chance to embarrass his former boss. 

The 85-year-old Pawar, who faces health issues, faces the equally daunting task of sustaining cadre morale and preventing further attrition within his faction, despite his enduring stature and tactical acumen. Besides, following the death of his nephew and the then Deputy Chief Minister and NCP President Ajit Pawar, the merger of NCP and NCP (SP) has been put on hold. Ajit Pawar’s wife Sunetra Pawar, who stepped into the leader's shoes, preferred not to speak about the issue so far. 

For both Thackeray and Pawar, both former Maharashtra Chief Ministers,  the coming months are likely to be decisive—not just for electoral outcomes at the local level, but also for determining whether their parties can reinvent themselves amid shifting political equations leading up to the 2029 Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections when delimitation will change the game.