Rajya Sabha polls in Maharashtra has a lot in store

Mumbai: The political landscape in Maharashtra has undergone a significant transformation since the Rajya Sabha polls were held in the western Indian state in June, 2022.

On 10 June, 2022, when elections to six seats of Rajya Sabha seats were held, the BJP brought an additional candidate and defeated a candidate of the undivided Shiv Sena led by then Maharashtra Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray, who had been heading the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government.

Just 10 days later, on 20 June, 2022, a total of 11 candidates were in the fray to fill up 10 vacancies of Maharashtra Legislative Council, however, a Congress candidate lost the polls. This time too BJP brought an additional candidate.

The very next day, Eknath Shinde led the banner of revolt with the support of the BJP.

However, what came as a surprise on 30 June, 2022, Shinde became the Chief Minister and BJP’s stalwart Devendra Fadnavis, a former Chief Minister and ex-Leader of the Opposition in the Assembly, his Deputy after the BJP High Command asked him to be a part of the government.

Exactly a year later, on 2 July, 2023, a similar rebellion happened in the NCP with Ajit Pawar raising a banner of revolt against his uncle and mentor Sharad Pawar and switching over to the NDA camp to become the Deputy Chief Minister.

Ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the situation has completely changed - Shinde is the chief leader of Shiv Sena, and Ajit Pawar is the NCP President.

The strength of the Opposition benches has depleted, while the Treasury side has swelled and it rides on the Narendra Modi-wave.

Six Rajya Sabha members Narayan Rane, Prakash Javadekar and V Muraleedharan (all three from BJP), Kumar Ketkar (Congress), Anil Desai (Shiv Sena) and Vandana Chavan (NCP) are retiring in April, and polls to fill the vacancies are being held in February.

The last date of filing of nominations is 15 February and polling, if needed, would be held on 27 February.

There are chances that BJP may put an additional candidate for elections to six seats of the Upper House of Parliament.

The electoral college for the Rajya Sabha polls is 288-member Maharashtra Legislative Assembly.

However, now the strength is 285 - because of the deaths of Anil Babar (Shiv Sena) and Govardhan Sharma (BJP), and the disqualification of Sunil Kedar (Congress).

One candidate would need a minimum of 42 votes to win the elections.

As far as the opposition MVA (I.N.D.I.A.) side is concerned, the Congress has 44 MLAs, Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) 16 and NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) 11, besides few Independents.

As far as Maha Yuti (NDA) is concerned, the BJP has a bench strength of 104, followed by Ajit Pawar-led NCP 44 and Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena 39 plus support of independents/others.

If one looks at the arithmetic, BJP can easily win three seats and give one seat each to Shinde and Ajit Pawar. The Congress can win one seat easily on its own strength.

However, if there are seven or eight candidates for the six seats - there could be surprises.

This time, the BJP could target the Congress ahead of the Lok Sabha polls.

A few days ago, reports surfaced that a dozen Congress MLAs are sitting on the fence.

Another important thing to be seen is that after almost 25 years, Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar would not have any major role to play if one looks at numbers, but both can spring surprises.