Modi govt faces global headwinds in 2026 assembly polls

New Delhi: The elections to four state Assemblies and one Union Territory are being held at a time when the Narendra Modi government is facing one of its toughest foreign policy challenges. The sparks of the West Asia conflict are flying beyond the Persian Gulf, with rising crude prices and a constricted supply of cooking gas adding another variable to what would have otherwise been localised contests.

Developments in the Strait of Hormuz have disrupted livelihoods from Howrah to Haldia. In poll-bound states, non-BJP parties have been quick to seize on the issue, to pin the blame on the prime minister’s foreign policy.

In West Bengal, where the BJP will make yet another attempt to unseat Mamata Banerjee from Fort William, the scramble for women’s votes is intense. Over the past week, Modi has sought to frame the elections around the “insult to President Murmu” by the TMC government at an event in north Bengal.

Mamata and her colleagues, sporting black sarees, countered the BJP’s charge by protesting on the streets of Kolkata against the recent hike in cooking gas prices.

Facing 15 years of anti-incumbency, the TMC will attempt to frame this election around the BJP’s performance at the Centre, topping up the campaign with a thick slice of Bengali sub-nationalism. 

Pressure to perform

In a country where seasonal spikes in onion prices have brought ruling parties to tears, the BJP understands all too well the political cost of war in the Persian Gulf. The long-term pains will come later, as it tries to contain the short-term impact, especially in poll-bound states. And if one is heading a coalition government at the Centre, the pressure to perform well in the states is always staring in the face.

For the BJP, ever in an election mode, every election is an opportunity to expand its own political footprint. While it faces off with regional parties in many states, its closest competitor at the national level remains the Congress. In the past decade, Modi has held the upper hand in direct contests against Rahul Gandhi.

It’s a perception that the Congress has been trying to overcome, without much success, for a while now. As in Haryana and Maharashtra Assembly elections that followed the 2024 LS polls, the party has often faltered in the last lap.

Which is why Assam, of all the states in this round of polls, assumes far greater importance for the national parties. The BJP and Congress are leading their respective alliances in Assam, with the BJP leadership as invested in Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma as Rahul Gandhi is in Gaurav Gogoi.

Southern battle

For the Congress, the next high-stakes battle will be in Kerala. The elections offer an opportunity to increase its tally of serving chief ministers, reduced to a mere three now. For the Left, Kerala remains its last frontier in the country.

Tamil Nadu, the other southern state heading to the polls, remains firmly rooted in regional politics. Despite efforts and jostling, national parties have been forced to play only marginal roles.

For Chief Minister MK Stalin and Opposition leader Palaniswami, the poll outcome, however, assumes importance for another reason. The results may decide their succession plans.

In Puducherry, where the Congress-DMK alliance poses a challenge, All India NR Congress leader N Rangasamy will helm the NDA coalition, seeking his fifth term as CM.