NDA, I.N.D.I.A. parties pick Assembly poll battles carefully

New Delhi: As they get their campaigns running ahead of the early-summer Assembly polls in four states and a Union Territory (UT), both NDA and I.N.D.I.A.-bloc constituents are picking their battles with great care, factoring in their spillover effect on national politics.

After two successive terms in the Opposition benches, the Congress in Kerala has sought to put its house in order by bringing various factions on board. Up against the Left Front in Kerala, it has decided not to join hands with the CPM in West Bengal, in what appears now to be a straight TMC-vs-BJP contest.

For the BJP, which will try to unseat the Mamata Banerjee-led TMC in West Bengal, that election is another opportunity to expand further east. Otherwise, the 15-year equilibrium almost resembles the Left-Congress stasis in the three-decade Left Front rule.

In Tamil Nadu, the BJP has conceded NDA's leadership to the AIADMK, the Dravidian outfit that would challenge the M K Stalin-led I.N.D.I.A. bloc. In two other southern fronts, Kerala and Puducherry, it has yet to emerge as a contender for power.

Interestingly, across the Chicken’s Neck, the Northeastern state of Assam is fast emerging as a key battleground.

Assam is the only state where the BJP and the Congress — two national parties — are in a direct contest. In the last 12 years in which Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been in power at the Centre, the Congress has crumbled in a direct face-off against the BJP, barring a few exceptions like Rajasthan, MP, and Chhattisgarh in 2018, and Karnataka in 2023.

The Congress has not been able to shake off that perception, while regional parties fare better against the BJP. This baggage has weighed heavily on the Grand Old Party when it faces the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections.

After the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, Modi consolidated his position with the BJP’s back-to-back victories in Haryana and Maharashtra. The outcomes in Bihar and Jharkhand, where regional parties were dominant players, had relatively local overtones.

For the BJP, a strong performance in state elections also brings electoral relief at the Centre, especially if it is directly against the Congress. 

So, Modi's first stop after a turbulent pre-recess Budget session was Assam. On board IAF’s Super Hercules C-130J transport aircraft, Modi touched down on a National Highway bypass in upper Assam’s Dibrugarh.

In a major infra push for the Northeast, the Union Cabinet last week also approved a four-lane corridor.

The Congress, too, has shown a discernible alacrity in preparing for the battle of Assam. While Parliament was in session, top Congress leaders met in Delhi for two days to discuss and dissect the party’s strategy.