NDA may get 295, UPA 127, Others 121: Latest prediction

The Narendra Modi-led NDA government is likely to get 295 seats, 23 seats more than the half-way mark, in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections while the Congress-led UPA could bag 127 and others 121, according to the final opinion poll by India TV-CNX ahead of the start of polling on Thursday.

The survey conducted between April 1 and 6 and was telecast on Monday was the betterment of results for the BJP-led NDA as the previous one publicised on Saturday had given NDA only 275 seats leaving 147 for UPA and 121 for others. The previous survey was conducted between March 24 and 31.

According to the latest round of the survey, which was conducted during a period when Congress had released its manifesto, the BJP tally will be 240, down from 282 it won in 2014, while that of Congress could be 84, a jump from 44 in the previous election. In the March 24-31 round, BJP was getting 230 while Congress was getting 97.

The final opinion poll was conducted in 305 out of the total 543 parliamentary constituencies, among a total voter sample of 36,600 respondents, including 17,475 women.

In the NDA, Shiv Sena 15, AIADMK 10, JD(U) 13, Akali Dal three, PMK two, LJP 3, and rest by other regional and smaller parties besides the BJP tally of 240.

Among UPA allies, DMK is likely to win 16, RJD five, TDP five, and rest by other regional and smaller parties.

Among the others category, Trinamool Congress is projected to win 29 seats, Samajwadi Party 15, BSP 13, YSR Congress 20, Telangana Rashtra Samithi 14, Biju Janata Dal 13, Left Front six, and rest by other regional and smaller parties.

In UP, BJP is likely to win 46 while SP may bag 16 while its ally BSP 13 and RLD 1. Congress may win four, which is an improvement from the victories of just UPA Chairperson Sonia Gandhi and party president Rahul Gandhi last time.

Bihar, which also sees a grand alliance, BJP (15), JD(U) 13 and LJP (3) together are poised to win 31 seats leaving just nine to the Opposition alliance -- RJD 5, Congress 2, RLSP 1 and VIP 1.

For Karnataka, there is no change in the situation in the last two polls -- BJP is predicted to win 16 seats while Congress may win 10 and its ally JD(S) remaining two.

State wise break up of seats prediction:

Uttar Pradesh: BJP 46, BSP 13, SP 15, Congress 4, RLD 1, Apna Dal 1

Uttarakhand: BJP 4, Congress 1

Rajasthan: BJP 19, Congress 6

West Bengal: Trinamool Congress 29, BJP 12, Cong 1, LF 0

Odisha: Biju Janata Dal 13, BJP 7, Congress 1

Madhya Pradesh: BJP 23, Congress 6

Chhattisgarh: BJP 5, Congress 6

Punjab: Congress 10, Akali Dal 3

Haryana: BJP 9, Congress 1

Bihar: BJP 15, RJD 5, JD(U) 13, Congress 2, LJP 3, RLSP 1, VIP 1

Jharkhand: BJP 9, JMM 2, Congress 2, AJSU 1

Gujarat : BJP 24, Congress 2

Himachal Pradesh: BJP 3, Congress 1

Maharashtra: BJP 21, Shiv Sena 15, Congress 6, NCP 6

Goa: BJP 1, Congress 1

Tamil Nadu: DMK 16, AIADMK 10, Congress 4, BJP 1, PMK 2, Others 6

Andhra Pradesh: YSR Congress 20, TDP 5

Telangana: Telangana Rashtra Samithi 14, AIMIM 1, Congress 2

Karnataka: BJP 16, Congress 10, JD(S) 2

Kerala: UDF 16, LDF 4

Jammu & Kashmir: BJP 2, NC 3, Congress 1

Assam: BJP 6, AIUDF 2, Congress 4, Others 2

Other North East states: BJP 6, Congress 1, NPP 2, NDPP 1, SDF 1

Delhi: BJP 7, Congress 0

Other Union Territories: BJP 4, Congress 2